Edition of August 25, 2026 · built from 3,787 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 5K at 76% this morning. · ▲ 69 points overnight · settles in 40 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tough Love by Nessa Barrett have above 5000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 5K | Culture | 76% ▲ 69 7d: ▲ 68 |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 | Culture | 28% ▼ 53 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Bad Beavers Blue wins Bad Beavers Blue | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 76 7d: ▼ 76 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Yes | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will Iselle become a Category 1 hurricane? Category 1 or above | News | 35% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Germany wins Germany | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will Day and Night by Carly Rae Jepsen have above 12000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 12K | Culture | 80% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Lyft App Downloads for August 2026 be above 88 ? Surging Above 88 | Everything Else | 47% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Paramount+ App Downloads for August 2026 be above 92 ? Above 92 | Everything Else | 53% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 24 |
| What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging Pro Tax | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 1 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNK FearX Youth wins BNK FearX Youth | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 50% — |
| Grace Dollar wins Grace Dollar | Tennis | in 4 hours | 47% — |
| Samsung Lions wins Samsung Lions | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 60% — |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 14M | Culture | in 5 hours | 18% ▼ 68 7d: ▲ 69 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,630.40 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 24% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be exactly 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.6 | Politics | in 7 hours | 30% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 25, 2026? Above $83.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 40% ▼ 49 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 3 days | 24% — |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the TOUR Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | in 5 days | 22% — |
| Will Long Way Home by STELLA LEFTY have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 21, 2026 - August 27, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K | Culture | in 5 days | 28% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 days | 11% ▼ 13 7d: ▼ 53 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 days | 16% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 16 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| BNK FearX Youth wins BNK FearX Youth · settles today | Everything Else | 50% — |
| Grace Dollar wins Grace Dollar · settles today | Tennis | 47% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 25, 2026? Above $83.49 · settles today | Commodities | 40% ▼ 49 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 22 days | Economy | 35% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 106 days | Economy | 34% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 300000? Above 300k · settles in 365 days | Politics | 72% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Kai-i Wang wins Kai-i Wang · | Tennis | 74% — |
| Will Democrats win exactly 11 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania? 11 · settles in 132 days | Politics | 26% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,630.40 · settles today | Commodities | 24% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 805 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 14M · settles today | Culture | 18% ▼ 68 7d: ▲ 69 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 28M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 28M · settles today | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 51 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 128 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 805 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 805 days | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 103 days | Sports | 86% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Long Way Home by STELLA LEFTY have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 21, 2026 - August 27, 2026 tracking week? Above 35K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 87% ▼ 9 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 310 days | NBA | 13% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Yes · settles in 7 days | Politics | 93.5% — |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 7 days | Everything Else | 93.3% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Julia Khramtsova wins Julia Khramtsova · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Jannik Maute wins Jannik Maute · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.040? Above 4.040 · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 98.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 25, 2026? Above $79.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.0% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $77.99 · settles in 4 days | Commodities | 97.0% — |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.16% on Aug 25, 2026? 4.17% or above · settles today | Economy | 97.0% — |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.48% on Aug 25, 2026? 4.49% or above · settles today | Economy | 93.5% — |