Edition of September 8, 2026 · built from 4,106 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Agent / Agentic at 40% this morning. · ▼ 38 points overnight · settles in 16 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >89° in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026? 90° or above | News | 67% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Sep 7, 2026 and Sep 13, 2026? 7 | Everything Else | 95% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 60 |
| What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement? Surging Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Everything Else | 25% ▼ 54 7d: ▲ 37 |
| What will Dylan Field say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026? Surging Agent / Agentic | Everything Else | 40% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Top Open Source AI this week? Surging GLM | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.169 at 5pm ET on Sep 11? Above 1.169 | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 37 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° in Miami on Sep 8, 2026? 92° to 93° | News | 16% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.1800? Above 4.1800 | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 42% ▲ 26 |
| Will Diesel Price on September 14, 2026 be above $5.86? Above $5.86 | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Castelnuovo wins Luca Castelnuovo | Tennis | within the hour | 34% — |
| FaZe wins FaZe | Everything Else | within the hour | 52% — |
| Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-09-05? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 76% — |
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 62% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,394.02 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 48% — |
| Frances Tiafoe wins Frances Tiafoe | Tennis | in 9 hours | 57% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $94.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 37% ▲ 21 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 54% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 | Politics | in 3 days | 26% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes | Tennis | in 5 days | 27% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will I Know Too Much by Ellie Goulding have above 2000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 2M | Culture | in 5 days | 34% ▲ 15 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will The Phase by MONSTA X have above 1000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 1M | Culture | in 5 days | 28% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 18 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 8 days | Economy | 52% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -7.5% of GDP? Above -7.5% of GDP · settles in 231 days | Politics | 52% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,394.02 · settles today | Commodities | 48% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 8 days | Economy | 48% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Frances Tiafoe wins Frances Tiafoe · settles today | Tennis | 57% — |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 791 days | Politics | 40% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming · settles today | Everything Else | 62% — |
| Primetime Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 20 days | Culture | 65% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will I Know Too Much by Ellie Goulding have above 2000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 2M · settles in 5 days | Culture | 34% ▲ 15 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes · settles in 5 days | Tennis | 27% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 · settles in 3 days | Politics | 26% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 791 days | Politics | 25% — |
| Sergio Callejon Hernando wins Sergio Callejon Hernando · | Tennis | 18% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 115 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 791 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Maria Bartiromo · settles in 866 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 296 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $92.99 · settles today | Commodities | 90% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 55 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 94.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 92.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $92.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 54 |
| Zdenek Kolar wins Zdenek Kolar · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $91.49 · settles today | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Filip Peliwo wins Filip Peliwo · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Sep 7, 2026 and Sep 13, 2026? 7 · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 95.0% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 60 |
| Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 20000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 20M · settles in 5 days | Culture | 94.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7599.9999 on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,600 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.25% or above · settles in 3 days | Economy | 96.0% ▲ 3 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.20% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.21% or above · settles in 3 days | Economy | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |