Edition of September 13, 2026 · built from 4,299 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 6:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 5.5% at 81% this morning. · ▲ 28 points overnight · settles in 39 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 0% ▼ 37 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Melissa McDonough receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-38 House election? At least 46% | Politics | 50% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Thomas Sorensen receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-01 House election? At least 2% | Politics | 50% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Bob Cohen receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-13 House election? At least 2% | Politics | 50% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Matt Cavanaugh receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-05 House election? At least 3% | Politics | 41% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 24% | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Will Tony Sabio receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 VA-08 House election? At least 28% | Politics | 44% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will Roy Matthewson receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-05 House election? At least 1% | Politics | 46% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3260? Above 4.3260 | Everything Else | 9% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Robert Murray receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 VA-04 House election? At least 34% | Politics | 50% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Ivashka wins Ilya Ivashka | Tennis | within the hour | 56% — |
| Bilibili Gaming wins Bilibili Gaming | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 64% — |
| Legacy wins Legacy | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 55% — |
| Ben Shelton wins Ben Shelton | Tennis | in 11 hours | 42% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $99.49 | Commodities | tomorrow | 56% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? Yes | Culture | tomorrow | 72% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4350 USD/t.oz on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4350 | Commodities | tomorrow | 52% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | in 3 days | 20% — 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | in 3 days | 78% — 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 | Politics | in 5 days | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 days | 22% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 days | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Ivashka wins Ilya Ivashka · settles today | Tennis | 56% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $99.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 56% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Ben Shelton wins Ben Shelton · settles today | Tennis | 42% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Kansas US Senate have the largest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Kansas US Senate and Nebraska US Senate? Kansas US Senate · settles in 58 days | Politics | 59% — |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 786 days | Politics | 60% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Bilibili Gaming wins Bilibili Gaming · settles today | Everything Else | 64% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 45 · settles in 36 days | Culture | 66% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? Yes · settles tomorrow | Culture | 72% — |
| Will Westside Whimsy by Jhené Aiko have above 50000000 streams during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week? Above 50M · settles in 7 days | Culture | 75% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 786 days | Politics | 24% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Economy | 78% — 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Economy | 20% — 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will Tim Veldhuizen receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election? At least 1% · settles in 112 days | Politics | 18% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 110 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.00 by Sep 30, 2026? 120.01 or above · settles in 18 days | Commodities | 16% ▼ 10 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Afghanistan wins Afghanistan · settles today | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 786 days | Everything Else | 13% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 291 days | NBA | 11% — |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 200 days | NFL | 10% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 6 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Doosan Bears wins Doosan Bears · settles today | Everything Else | 95.0% — |
| Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters wins Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters · settles today | Everything Else | 94.5% — |
| Kylie Collins wins Kylie Collins · settles today | Tennis | 96.0% — |
| Mate Valkusz wins Mate Valkusz · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.599 USD/MMBtu on September 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $2.599 · settles in 5 days | Commodities | 97.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $94.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Those Who Wish Me Dead be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 14, 2026? Those Who Wish Me Dead · settles in 2 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Sep 18, 2026? 5.25% or above · settles in 5 days | Economy | 93.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Sep 18, 2026? 4.69% or above · settles in 5 days | Economy | 94.0% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |