Edition of September 16, 2026 · built from 4,530 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 26.3% at 40% this morning. · ▲ 23 points overnight · settles in 12 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Google market share this week? Above 18.8% | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Chelsea wins Chelsea | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Tencent market share this week? Above 4.5% | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 | Culture | 75% ▲ 37 |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.825 at 5pm ET on Sep 18? Above 0.825 | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 48 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.1% or above | Economy | 50% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 2.75% | Everything Else | 55% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will USDCAD be Above 1.385 at 5pm ET on Sep 18? Above 1.385 | Everything Else | 60% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 37 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.4800? Above 4.4800 | Everything Else | 42% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 31 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Surging Above 26.3% | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 23 7d: ▼ 7 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Brunclik wins Petr Brunclik | Tennis | in 2 hours | 38% — |
| Black Phoenix wins Black Phoenix | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 76% — |
| Gaia Maduzzi wins Gaia Maduzzi | Tennis | in 4 hours | 28% — |
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 48% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 104.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 16, 2026? Above $104.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 50% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29139.99 at the end of Sep 16, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,140 or above | Markets | later today | 47% — |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 66% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 21, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 5 days | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will The Debut win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? The Debut | Culture | in 6 days | 22% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Crew Girl: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 21, 2026? Crew Girl: Season 1 | Culture | in 6 days | 18% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29139.99 at the end of Sep 16, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,140 or above · settles today | Markets | 47% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 16, 2026? Above $103.99 · settles today | Commodities | 60% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Alina Charaeva wins Alina Charaeva · | Tennis | 61% ▲ 21 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes · settles in 107 days | Politics | 66% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will SNSD finish 3rd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election? SNSD · settles in 106 days | Politics | 31% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will SNSD finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election? SNSD · settles in 106 days | Politics | 74% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Gabriela CE wins Gabriela CE · | Tennis | 25% ▲ 15 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Black Phoenix wins Black Phoenix · settles today | Everything Else | 76% — |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 106 days | Culture | 76% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 783 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 165 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Will Crew Girl: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 21, 2026? Crew Girl: Season 1 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 18% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 107 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 783 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| England wins England · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will La bola negra win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? La bola negra · settles in 6 days | Culture | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · | Economy | 88% — 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · | Economy | 12% — 7d: ▼ 33 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 197 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 288 days | NBA | 11% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 98.2% — 7d: ▲ 57 |
| Qian Sun wins Qian Sun · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Alexandre Reco wins Alexandre Reco · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2800? Above 4.2800 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.50 USD/Bbl on September 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $99.50 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 100.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 16, 2026? Above $100.99 · settles today | Commodities | 94.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.58% on Sep 16, 2026? 4.59% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Sep 16, 2026? 4.55% or above · settles today | Economy | 95.5% — |