Edition of September 17, 2026 · built from 3,355 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 76% this morning. · ▲ 27 points overnight · settles in 105 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Sep 18, 2026? Before Sep 18, 2026 | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 57 7d: ▼ 57 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Surging Yes | Economy | 76% ▲ 27 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.147 at 5pm ET on Sep 18? Above 1.147 | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 2 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 24% | Everything Else | 57% ▼ 38 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Drake have above 14.25M daily views at any point during September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026? Above 14.25M | Everything Else | 51% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Trump say "Melania" before Sep 21, 2026? Surging Melania | Everything Else | 42% ▼ 33 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Surging Above 3.05% | Everything Else | 38% ▲ 32 |
| Will Diesel Price on September 21, 2026 be above $6.60? Above $6.60 | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.1% or above | Economy | 50% ▲ 34 7d: ▼ 1 |
| What will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Road Trip | Everything Else | 34% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 31 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7599.9999 on Sep 17, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,600 or above | Markets | in 5 hours | 54% — |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? Yes | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 58% — |
| Afghanistan wins Afghanistan | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 17, 2026? Above $96.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 42% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Phoenix wins Phoenix | WNBA | later today | 56% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 6 |
| James Cook III: 1+ touchdowns James Cook III: 1+ | NFL | later today | 55% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Racing Avellaneda wins Racing Avellaneda | Everything Else | tomorrow | 55% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 | Culture | in 4 days | 48% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Sep 21, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 4 days | 53% ▼ 15 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will The Debut win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? The Debut | Culture | in 5 days | 23% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 48% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for September 2026 be above 444.8? Above 444.8 · settles in 34 days | Economy | 47% — |
| James Cook III: 1+ touchdowns James Cook III: 1+ · settles today | NFL | 55% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 17, 2026? Above $96.99 · settles today | Commodities | 42% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Manchin Senate combo: Both lose? Both lose · settles in 47 days | Politics | 60% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Dec 1, 2026? Before Dec 1, 2026 · settles in 106 days | Everything Else | 36% — |
| Marina Bassols Ribera wins Marina Bassols Ribera · | Tennis | 35% — |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 105 days | Culture | 72% ▼ 14 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will SNSD finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election? SNSD · settles in 105 days | Politics | 72% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 782 days | Politics | 22% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 164 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 106 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 782 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will La bola negra win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? La bola negra · settles in 5 days | Culture | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 782 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 287 days | NBA | 11% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Afghanistan wins Afghanistan · settles today | Everything Else | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 196 days | NFL | 10% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Millen Hurrion wins Millen Hurrion · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in Chicago on Sep 17, 2026? Chicago · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% — |
| Samir Banerjee wins Samir Banerjee · settles today | Tennis | 96.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 17, 2026? Above $93.49 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.4000? Above 4.4000 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 94.0% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3800? Above 4.3800 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7534.9999 on Sep 17, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,535 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7519.9999 on Sep 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,520 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.0% — |