Edition of September 23, 2026 · built from 4,484 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 72% this morning. · ▼ 7 points overnight · settles in 465 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Lexington on Sep 23, 2026? Lexington | News | 48% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will Jacob Misiorowski be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season? Surging Jacob Misiorowski | MLB | 14% ▼ 62 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 2.7% | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will the Magyar Nemzeti Bank hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Council policy meeting? Hike 1-25bps | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Google market share this week? Above 20.0% | Everything Else | 56% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will Roy Cooper receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wake County, North Carolina? Surging At least 66% | Politics | 36% ▼ 38 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Roy Cooper receive at least 76% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina? Surging At least 76% | Politics | 5% ▼ 42 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will NZDUSD be Above 0.575 at 5pm ET on Sep 25? Above 0.575 | Everything Else | 58% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 88-89° in Miami on Sep 23, 2026? 88° to 89° | News | 8% ▼ 27 |
| Will HELLDIVERS™ 2 be #1 on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers - Top 100 products by revenue list for Sep 22 - Sep 29, 2026? HELLDIVERS™ 2 | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 31 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volodymyr Iakubenko wins Volodymyr Iakubenko | Tennis | in 3 hours | 44% — |
| Kia Tigers wins Kia Tigers | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 52% — |
| fnatic wins fnatic | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 60% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,318.26 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 70% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 23, 2026? Above $89.49 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 60% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| New York Y wins New York Y | MLB | later today | 60% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 days | 38% — |
| Will Team USA win Day 1 of the Presidents Cup? Team USA | Politics | in 2 days | 68% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 99 | Culture | in 5 days | 15% — |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Sep 28, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 5 days | 43% — |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 28, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 | Culture | in 6 days | 66% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Deniz Dilek wins Deniz Dilek · | Tennis | 44% — |
| fnatic wins fnatic · settles today | Everything Else | 60% — |
| Murphy Cassone wins Murphy Cassone · | Tennis | 60% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 23, 2026? Above $89.49 · settles today | Commodities | 60% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes · settles in 100 days | Economy | 64% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections? At least 1 · settles in 131 days | Politics | 32% — |
| QUAZAR wins QUAZAR · settles today | Everything Else | 77% — |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 190 days | Culture | 78% ▼ 7 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 776 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 281 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Will The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 28, 2026? The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare · settles in 6 days | Culture | 18% — |
| Will Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms? Yes · settles in 131 days | Politics | 16% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 99 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 15% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 100 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 851 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 777 days | Everything Else | 13% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 190 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 281 days | NBA | 11% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7734.9999 on Sep 23, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,735 or above · settles today | Markets | 90% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| India Under-19s wins India Under-19s · settles today | Everything Else | 94.0% — |
| Barcelona wins Barcelona · settles today | Champions League | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Lyon wins Lyon · settles today | Champions League | 94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 23, 2026? Above $86.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 23, 2026? Above $86.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.0% — |
| T1 Academy wins T1 Academy · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 6 days | Culture | 94.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7734.9999 on Sep 23, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,735 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7724.9999 on Sep 23, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,725 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.5% — |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 95.5% — |