Edition of September 24, 2026 · built from 3,177 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Yahya Abdul-Mateen II at 20% this morning. · ▼ 37 points overnight · settles in 76 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Columbus on Sep 24, 2026? Columbus | News | 61% ▲ 56 |
| Tencent market share this week? Surging Above 3.5% | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 38 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Google market share this week? Surging Above 18.1% | Everything Else | 60% ▼ 38 7d: ▲ 7 |
| 2027 Toyota RAV4 starting MSRP above $34,000? Above $34,000 | Everything Else | 54% ▲ 40 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 24.1% | Everything Else | 58% ▼ 32 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 246 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? At least 246 | Everything Else | 58% ▲ 36 |
| Xiaomi market share this week? Surging Above 1.8% | Everything Else | 87% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Sep 25, 2026? 4.89% or above | Economy | 32% ▼ 39 |
| Will Trump call for a global AI slowdown before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027 | Everything Else | 34% ▲ 29 7d: ▼ 4 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30319.99 at the end of Sep 24, 2026 at 10am EDT? 30,320 or above | Markets | in 5 hours | 61% — |
| South Africa wins South Africa | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 33% ▼ 9 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 100.50 USD/Bbl on September 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $100.50 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 48% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals? Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals | Everything Else | later today | 62% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns to win Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns | Politics | later today | 59% — |
| Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun to win Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun | Politics | later today | 56% — |
| Christian Watson: 5+ receptions Christian Watson: 5+ | NFL | later today | 57% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 | Culture | in 4 days | 39% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| PHI Eagles wins by over 3.5 points? PHI Eagles wins by over 3.5 points | NFL | in 5 days | 54% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 28, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 | Culture | in 5 days | 66% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 days | 12% — 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 days | 38% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes · settles in 99 days | Economy | 48% ▼ 8 7d: ▲ 27 |
| PHI Eagles wins by over 3.5 points? PHI Eagles wins by over 3.5 points · settles in 5 days | NFL | 54% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun to win Justin Thomas / Jackson Koivun · settles today | Politics | 56% — |
| Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns to win Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns · settles today | Politics | 59% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30319.99 at the end of Sep 24, 2026 at 10am EDT? 30,320 or above · settles today | Markets | 61% — |
| Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals? Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals · settles today | Everything Else | 62% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 28, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 66% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? Yes · settles in 99 days | Economy | 77% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 189 days | Culture | 78% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 775 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Greet Minnen wins Greet Minnen · | Tennis | 80% — |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 280 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Will The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 28, 2026? The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare · settles in 5 days | Culture | 16% ▼ 19 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 776 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Sri Lanka wins Sri Lanka · settles today | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 99 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 850 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 189 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 280 days | NBA | 11% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 24, 2026? Above $89.99 · settles today | Commodities | 90% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 99.3% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 7 days | Everything Else | 96.6% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 24, 2026? Above $89.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 24, 2026? Above $88.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Paul Jubb wins Paul Jubb · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| BAL Ravens over 7.5 points scored BAL Ravens over 7.5 points scored · settles in 4 days | NFL | 95.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the minimum temperature be <50° in Boston on Sep 24, 2026? 49° or below · settles tomorrow | News | 94.0% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Sep 24, 2026? 5.03% or above · settles today | Economy | 96.0% — |