Edition of September 25, 2026 · built from 3,560 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 96 at 19% this morning. · ▼ 57 points overnight · settles in 3 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Surging Above 96 | Culture | 19% ▼ 57 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Big Sky open before Dec 13, 2026? Before Dec 13, 2026 | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 43 |
| Min Woo Lee: Most Points Min Woo Lee | Politics | 4% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Taylor Swift have the top 4 songs on the Billboard 100 for the week of October 10, 2026? Exactly Yes | Culture | 37% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will Norges Bank cut more than 25bps at the November monetary policy meeting? Cut more than 25bps | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Scottie Scheffler: 2 Points Earned 2+ Points | Politics | 50% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will it rain in Milwaukee on Sep 25, 2026? Milwaukee | News | 38% ▲ 30 |
| Titled Tuesday Sep 29, 2026 Top 8 Finishers: Parham Maghsoodloo Parham Maghsoodloo | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 36 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 100000000 streams during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 100M | Culture | 50% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will BC Conservatives win the 2026 British Columbia general election? BC Conservatives | Politics | 52% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botic Van de Zandschulp wins Botic Van de Zandschulp | Tennis | within the hour | 46% — |
| New South Wales Blues wins New South Wales Blues | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 22% — |
| Esther Adeshina wins Esther Adeshina | Tennis | in 3 hours | 26% — |
| Yomiuri Giants wins Yomiuri Giants | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 64% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,293.51 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 70% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7704.9999 on Sep 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,705 or above | Markets | later today | 77% — |
| Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns to win Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns | Politics | later today | 64% — |
| Justin Thomas / Cameron Young to win Justin Thomas / Cameron Young | Politics | later today | 56% — |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 | Culture | in 3 days | 56% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 28, 2026? The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare | Culture | in 4 days | 28% ▲ 13 7d: ▼ 6 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 86% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 14% — 7d: ▼ 10 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes · settles in 98 days | Economy | 50% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Justin Thomas / Cameron Young to win Justin Thomas / Cameron Young · settles today | Politics | 56% — |
| Tatiana Prozorova wins Tatiana Prozorova · | Tennis | 38% — |
| Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns to win Scottie Scheffler / Sam Burns · settles today | Politics | 64% — |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore by Taylor Swift have above 300000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week? Above 300K · settles in 9 days | Culture | 65% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Kimberly Birrell wins Kimberly Birrell · | Tennis | 68% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,293.51 · settles today | Commodities | 70% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7704.9999 on Sep 25, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,705 or above · settles today | Markets | 77% — |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 188 days | Culture | 78% — 7d: ▲ 8 |
| New South Wales Blues wins New South Wales Blues · settles today | Everything Else | 22% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 774 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 775 days | Everything Else | 15% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 98 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 849 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 188 days | NFL | 12% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 279 days | NBA | 11% — |
| NC Dinos wins NC Dinos · settles today | Everything Else | 90% — |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 28, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 90% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 11 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? Yes · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 99.4% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will it rain in Seattle on Sep 25, 2026? Seattle · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 97.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30329.99 at the end of Sep 25, 2026 at 10am EDT? 30,330 or above · settles today | Markets | 98.0% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 25, 2026? Above $88.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.0% — |
| Will there be over 7.5 1H points scored? Over 7.5 1H points scored · settles in 3 days | NFL | 97.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 25, 2026? Above $88.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Louisville wins Louisville · settles today | College | 93.5% — |