Edition of October 8, 2026 · built from 3,570 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 1.121 at 29% this morning. · ▼ 26 points overnight · settles tomorrow · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Z.ai market share this week? Above 14.1% | Everything Else | 63% ▲ 56 |
| Will the minimum temperature be <61° in Austin on Oct 8, 2026? 60° or below | News | 82% ▲ 60 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 17.8% | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 40 7d: ▲ 26 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 23.4% | Everything Else | 60% ▼ 32 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 20 Jacob Bridgeman | Golf | 88% ▲ 38 |
| Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 10 Jacob Bridgeman | Golf | 71% ▲ 41 |
| Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff be at least 9%? Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3400? Above 4.3400 | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Baycurrent Classic: Jacob Bridgeman wins Surging Jacob Bridgeman | Golf | 26% ▲ 22 |
| Titled Tuesday Oct 13, 2026 Top 8 Finishers: Hans Niemann Hans Niemann | Everything Else | 55% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 39 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Gaming wins JD Gaming | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 72% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 8, 2026? Above $90.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 69% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30729.99 at the end of Oct 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 30,730 or above | Markets | later today | 48% — |
| Chicago WS wins Chicago WS | MLB | later today | 48% — |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 38% — |
| West Indies wins West Indies | Everything Else | tomorrow | 26% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 15% — |
| Baycurrent Classic: Jacob Bridgeman wins Jacob Bridgeman | Golf | in 3 days | 26% ▲ 22 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 4 days | 68% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Oct 12, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 4 days | 18% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Doing Life be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 12, 2026? Doing Life | Culture | in 5 days | 34% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago WS wins Chicago WS · settles today | MLB | 48% — |
| Mariano Navone wins Mariano Navone · | Tennis | 56% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 9, 2026? Above $90.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 63% — |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 68% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 8, 2026? Above $90.99 · settles today | Commodities | 69% — |
| JD Gaming wins JD Gaming · settles today | Everything Else | 72% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 63 days | Economy | 76% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 762 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 85 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 84% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 27 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 18.4% · settles in 11 days | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election? Lorenzo Pazolini · settles in 99 days | Politics | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 266 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 85 days | Economy | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 175 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? La Bola Negra · settles in 88 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 6% and 9%? Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9% · settles in 382 days | Politics | 10% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 235 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? Yes · settles in 5 days | Politics | 93.5% — |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 97.4% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2800? Above 4.2800 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3000? Above 4.3000 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 8, 2026? Above $88.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in Trenton between Oct 10 and Oct 11, 2026? Trenton · settles in 5 days | News | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 8, 2026? Above $86.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% — |
| Ksenia Laskutova wins Ksenia Laskutova · settles today | Tennis | 93.0% — |
| Joshua Edwards wins Joshua Edwards · settles in 3 days | Boxing | 94.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 13 |