Edition of October 13, 2026 · built from 3,704 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Emmy Rossum at 68% this morning. · ▲ 15 points overnight · settles in 83 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Oct 12, 2026 be above 57.2%? Above 57.2% | Sports | 2% ▼ 86 7d: ▼ 86 |
| Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° in Houston on Oct 13, 2026? 78° to 79° | News | 12% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee Championship Series Game Spread: Los Angeles D -1.5 games Los Angeles D -1.5 games | MLB | 11% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will Matúš Vallo win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election? Matúš Vallo | Politics | 90% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee Championship Series winner: Milwaukee wins Milwaukee | MLB | 71% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Cleveland vs Tampa Bay Championship Series winner: Tampa Bay wins Surging Tampa Bay | MLB | 42% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Surging Yes | MLB | 22% ▼ 15 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Kash Patel visit Russia before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027 | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <71° in New York on Oct 13, 2026? 70° or below | News | 52% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Diaz Acosta wins Facundo Diaz Acosta | Tennis | within the hour | 10% — |
| Team WE wins Team WE | Everything Else | within the hour | 68% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $91.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 54% ▼ 20 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 18% ▲ 6 |
| Australia wins Australia | Everything Else | later today | 66% ▼ 18 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 84% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.2 to 38.4 | Politics | in 3 days | 17% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $103.99 | Commodities | in 3 days | 28% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Ohio St. wins by over 3.5 points Ohio St. wins by over 3.5 points | College | in 4 days | 50% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Sense and Sensibility Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 77 | Culture | in 6 days | 39% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 14 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 98 | Culture | in 6 days | 46% — |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Oct 19, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 6 days | 69% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $91.99 · settles today | Commodities | 54% ▼ 20 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Sense and Sensibility Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 77 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 39% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Lilli Tagger wins Lilli Tagger · | Tennis | 38% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Australia wins Australia · settles today | Everything Else | 66% ▼ 18 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 107 days | Economy | 32% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Team WE wins Team WE · settles today | Everything Else | 68% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? La Bola Negra · settles in 84 days | Culture | 28% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103.99 USD/Bbl on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $103.99 · settles in 4 days | Commodities | 28% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 58 days | Economy | 76% — 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 19 days | MLB | 22% ▼ 15 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 80 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 757 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Bezalel Smotrich · settles in 379 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 87% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 80 days | Politics | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 170 days | Culture | 12% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 261 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta wins Facundo Diaz Acosta · settles today | Tennis | 10% — |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 230 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Pavel Lagutin wins Pavel Lagutin · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Nuria Brancaccio wins Nuria Brancaccio · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $89.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.0% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 10 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Oct 13, 2026? 5.11% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will Trump endorse at least 3 people on Truth Social this week? At least 3 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7759.9999 on Oct 13, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,760 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $88.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 17 |