Today’s Number
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
Market-consensus odds put this at 24% this morning. · ▼ 5 points overnight · settles in 70 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of October 23, 2026
Edition of October 23, 2026 · built from 1,964 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
24%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 26, 2026? Nobody Wants This: Season 3 | Culture | 10% ▼ 78 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Paderborn wins by more than 2.5 goals? Paderborn wins by more than 2.5 goals | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 41 |
| Will it rain in West Palm Beach on Oct 23, 2026? West Palm Beach | News | 51% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >82° in Phoenix on Oct 23, 2026? 83° or above | News | 26% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Wolfsburg wins by more than 2.5 goals? Wolfsburg wins by more than 2.5 goals | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 36 |
| Stifel Charity Classic: Zach Johnson wins Zach Johnson | Everything Else | 30% ▲ 19 |
| Will Cyberpunk: Edgerunners 2 be #2 US Netflix Show on Oct 26, 2026? Cyberpunk: Edgerunners 2 | Culture | 8% ▼ 26 |
| Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 29, 2026 be above 7.28%? Above 7.28% | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Copenhagen wins Copenhagen | Conference League | 78% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,022.54 | Commodities | within the hour | 46% — |
| Kristina Dmitruk wins Kristina Dmitruk | Tennis | in 4 hours | 42% — |
| Jiri Lehecka wins Jiri Lehecka | Tennis | in 5 hours | 72% — |
| Al Nassr wins 1st Half Al Nassr wins 1st Half | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 62% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 23, 2026? Above $99.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 52% — |
| Zimbabwe wins Zimbabwe | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 26% — |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 78% — |
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 12% ▼ 16 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 20% — |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 77 | Culture | in 3 days | 40% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes | Politics | in 4 days | 52% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 34 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 23, 2026? Above $99.99 · settles today | Commodities | 52% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,022.54 · settles today | Commodities | 46% — |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 77 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 40% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Iowa be at least 7 percentage points? Sand, 7+ pts · settles in 376 days | Politics | 38% — |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 9 days | MLB | 37% — 7d: ▲ 21 |
| NEXVOID wins NEXVOID · settles today | Everything Else | 34% — |
| Katie Boulter wins Katie Boulter · | Tennis | 32% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 48 days | Economy | 73% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Zimbabwe wins Zimbabwe · settles today | Everything Else | 26% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 24% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 251 days | NBA | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 77% ▼ 2 |
| Will Podemos win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Spanish general election? Podemos · settles in 46 days | Politics | 77% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 48 days | Economy | 22% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Leylah Fernandez wins Leylah Fernandez · | Tennis | 84% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 70 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 747 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Economy | 93.5% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 7 days | Everything Else | 97.2% — |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins Stefanos Tsitsipas · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Matteo Gribaldo wins Matteo Gribaldo · settles today | Tennis | 93.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 23, 2026? Above $96.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 23, 2026? Above $95.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Sun Rockers Shibuya wins Sun Rockers Shibuya · settles today | Everything Else | 94.5% — |