Edition of October 24, 2026 · built from 2,490 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 17% this morning. · ▼ 8 points overnight · settles in 434 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| What will Zoom Communications, Inc. say during their next earnings call? Enterprise | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Elche To Advance Elche advances | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will lists below the electoral threshold combined receive at least 9% of valid votes in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election? At least 9% | Politics | 4% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call? Desktop | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Konata Mumpfield: 4+ receptions Konata Mumpfield: 4+ | NFL | 25% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Espanyol To Advance Espanyol advances | Everything Else | 82% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Puka Nacua: 8+ receptions Puka Nacua: 8+ | NFL | 44% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 22 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 15 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes | Politics | 66% ▲ 12 7d: ▼ 21 |
| What will Shopify Inc. say during their next earnings call? Service | Everything Else | 80% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 28 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand wins New Zealand | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 35% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Ivan Biletic wins Ivan Biletic | Tennis | in 4 hours | 36% — |
| Imanol Lopez Morillo wins Imanol Lopez Morillo | Tennis | in 4 hours | 22% — |
| CTBC Flying Oyster wins CTBC Flying Oyster | Everything Else | later today | 32% — |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 24% — |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 19% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 34% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 77 | Culture | in 2 days | 14% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will the gold close price be above 3994 USD/t.oz on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $3994 | Commodities | in 2 days | 60% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 66% ▲ 12 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.2 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.0 to 38.2 | Politics | in 6 days | 12% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.63% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.64% or above | Economy | in 6 days | 57% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.63% on Oct 30, 2026? 4.64% or above · settles in 6 days | Economy | 57% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Marie Bouzkova wins Marie Bouzkova · | Tennis | 42% — |
| New Zealand wins New Zealand · settles today | Everything Else | 35% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 4 |
| CTBC Flying Oyster wins CTBC Flying Oyster · settles today | Everything Else | 32% — |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 8 days | MLB | 27% ▼ 9 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 7 percentage points? Ossoff, 7+ pts · settles in 375 days | Politics | 74% — |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes · settles in 47 days | Economy | 74% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 250 days | NBA | 24% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Nathan Fielder win Best Director at the Oscars? Nathan Fielder · settles in 433 days | Culture | 22% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 100.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 26, 2026? Above $100.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 78% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 47 days | Economy | 22% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 79% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Viktorija Golubic wins Viktorija Golubic · | Tennis | 20% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 20% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 69 days | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 4 percentage points? Ken Paxton, 4+ pts · settles in 375 days | Politics | 18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 746 days | Everything Else | 17% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 77 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 14% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 14 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 5 days | Economy | 93.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 98.4% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Tara Wuerth wins Tara Wuerth · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? Yes · settles today | Politics | 94.5% — |
| Nigeria wins Nigeria · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Kamilla Bartone wins Kamilla Bartone · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.83% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 72 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 97.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 26, 2026? Above $97.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 26, 2026? Above $96.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |