Edition of November 5, 2026 · built from 2,205 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 4:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 28% this morning. · ▲ 4 points overnight · settles in 734 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will The Day After Tomorrow be Top US Netflix Movie on Nov 9, 2026? The Day After Tomorrow | Culture | 58% ▲ 45 |
| Will Trump endorse at least 400 people on Truth Social this week? At least 400 | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 36 |
| Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 262 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? At least 262 | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will the Democratic party hold more than 259 House seats in the 120th Congress? Above 259 | Politics | 81% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 50-51° in Minneapolis on Nov 5, 2026? 50° to 51° | News | 92% ▲ 28 |
| Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Republican Party candidates be at least 174 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? At least 174 | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Godzilla Minus Zero Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 88 | Culture | 48% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Javokhir Ummataliev wins Javokhir Ummataliev | Boxing | 92% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will Emily Blunt be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? Emily Blunt | Everything Else | 34% ▼ 25 |
| TOTO Japan Classic: Miyu Yamashita wins Miyu Yamashita | Everything Else | 36% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Janakpur Bolts wins Janakpur Bolts | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 56% — |
| Xirui Han wins Xirui Han | Tennis | in 2 hours | 81% — |
| Dow Jones price: At least 52,700 November 5, 2026 at 4pm ET At least $52,700 | Markets | in 12 hours | 60% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4134 USD/t.oz on November 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $4134 | Commodities | later today | 40% — |
| Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 55% — |
| Godzilla Minus Zero Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 88 | Culture | in 4 days | 48% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 20% — |
| West Indies wins West Indies | Everything Else | in 5 days | 44% — |
| Full Game: over 45.5 points scored? Over 45.5 points | NFL | in 5 days | 48% — |
| Will Black Doves: Season 2 be #2 Global Netflix Show on Nov 9, 2026? Black Doves: Season 2 | Culture | in 5 days | 45% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Sho Shimabukuro wins Sho Shimabukuro · | Tennis | 52% — |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? Yes · settles in 77 days | Economy | 55% — |
| West Indies wins West Indies · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 44% — |
| Janakpur Bolts wins Janakpur Bolts · settles today | Everything Else | 56% — |
| Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27? Yes · settles in 238 days | Premier League | 42% — |
| Xinyu Wang wins Xinyu Wang · settles today | Tennis | 42% — |
| Dow Jones price: At least 52,700 November 5, 2026 at 4pm ET At least $52,700 · settles today | Markets | 60% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4134 USD/t.oz on November 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $4134 · settles today | Commodities | 40% — |
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 71% — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 28% — 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 1 percentage points? Colom, 1+ pts · settles in 363 days | Politics | 24% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes · settles in 57 days | Economy | 78% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 734 days | Politics | 17% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 227 days | Champions League | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 734 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 57 days | Everything Else | 12% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 147 days | Culture | 12% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points? James Talarico, 12+ pts · settles in 363 days | Politics | 89% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Black Doves: Season 2 be Top US Netflix Show on Nov 9, 2026? Black Doves: Season 2 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 10% ▼ 14 7d: ▼ 14 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 98.4% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Al Hazem SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw? Yes · settles tomorrow | Sports | 98.9% — |
| Will Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club end in a draw? Yes · settles today | Sports | 98.9% — |
| The Cat in the Hat Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 30 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Flyers Wels wins Flyers Wels · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 96.0% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4014 USD/t.oz on November 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $4014 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4044 USD/t.oz on November 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Above $4044 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |