Final tracked odds
As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
Everything Else · tracked since September 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 22, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-21 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.2% |
| 2026-09-10 | 1.3% |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 1.1% |
| 2026-09-06 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-05 | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.6% |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 1.4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 12 tracked days the odds held near 1.4%, ending at 0.1% on September 22, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15” for 12 days, since September 2, 2026. As of September 22, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 1.4% to 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 22, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.