The Morning Line

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

98%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Above 12 the most likely outcome at 98%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Above 12Above 13Above 150
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Above 12 — Jul 7: 90%Above 12 — Jul 8: 90%Above 12 — Jul 9: 94%Above 12 — Jul 10: 94%Above 12 — Jul 11: 94%Above 12 — Jul 12: 86%Above 12 — Jul 13: 94%Above 12 — Jul 14: 94%Above 12 — Jul 15: 96%Above 12 — Jul 16: 96%Above 12 — Jul 17: 92%Above 12 — Jul 18: 94%Above 12 — Jul 19: 96%Above 12 — Jul 20: 92%Above 12 — Jul 21: 96%Above 12 — Jul 22: 96%Above 12 — Jul 23: 96%Above 12 — Jul 24: 98%Above 12 — Jul 25: 98%Above 12 — Jul 26: 98%Above 12 — Jul 27: 98%Above 12 — Jul 28: 98%Above 12 — Jul 29: 98%98%Above 13 — Jul 7: 59%Above 13 — Jul 8: 56%Above 13 — Jul 9: 66%Above 13 — Jul 10: 56%Above 13 — Jul 11: 56%Above 13 — Jul 12: 50%Above 13 — Jul 13: 68%Above 13 — Jul 14: 64%Above 13 — Jul 15: 74%Above 13 — Jul 16: 84%Above 13 — Jul 17: 69%Above 13 — Jul 18: 74%Above 13 — Jul 19: 72%Above 13 — Jul 20: 60%Above 13 — Jul 21: 72%Above 13 — Jul 22: 76%Above 13 — Jul 23: 76%Above 13 — Jul 24: 76%Above 13 — Jul 25: 96%Above 13 — Jul 26: 94%Above 13 — Jul 27: 82%Above 13 — Jul 28: 78%Above 13 — Jul 29: 84%Above 150 — Jul 7: 52%Above 150 — Jul 8: 52%Above 150 — Jul 9: 54%Above 150 — Jul 10: 55%Above 150 — Jul 11: 68%Above 150 — Jul 12: 66%Above 150 — Jul 13: 70%Above 150 — Jul 14: 74%Above 150 — Jul 15: 70%Above 150 — Jul 16: 76%Above 150 — Jul 17: 74%Above 150 — Jul 18: 76%Above 150 — Jul 19: 76%Above 150 — Jul 20: 80%Above 150 — Jul 21: 68%Above 150 — Jul 22: 76%Above 150 — Jul 23: 74%Above 150 — Jul 24: 76%Above 150 — Jul 25: 75%Above 150 — Jul 26: 76%Above 150 — Jul 27: 77%Above 150 — Jul 28: 78%Above 150 — Jul 29: 73%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Above 1298%98%▲ 1
Above 1378%84%▲ 5
Above 15078%73%▼ 5
Full history table
DateAbove 12Above 13Above 150
2026-07-2998%84%73%
2026-07-2898%78%78%
2026-07-2798%82%77%
2026-07-2698%94%76%
2026-07-2598%96%75%
2026-07-2498%76%76%
2026-07-2396%76%74%
2026-07-2296%76%76%
2026-07-2196%72%68%
2026-07-2092%60%80%
2026-07-1996%72%76%
2026-07-1894%74%76%
2026-07-1792%69%74%
2026-07-1696%84%76%
2026-07-1596%74%70%
2026-07-1494%64%74%
2026-07-1394%68%70%
2026-07-1286%50%66%
2026-07-1194%56%68%
2026-07-1094%56%55%
2026-07-0994%66%54%
2026-07-0890%56%52%
2026-07-0790%59%52%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, Above 12 leads at 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 90% on July 7, 2026 to 98% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 86% and 98%. The current reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Above 12 leads the field at 98%. The chance for Above 12 has risen from 90% to 98%, ranging between 86% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.