The Morning Line

How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 28, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

94%

Today’s odds

As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds make Above 10 the most likely outcome at 94%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Above 10Above 11Above 12Above 13Above 14
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 28Jul 31Aug 3Aug 6Aug 9Above 10 — Jul 29: 96%Above 10 — Jul 30: 96%Above 10 — Jul 31: 96%Above 10 — Aug 1: 96%Above 10 — Aug 2: 98%Above 10 — Aug 4: 98%Above 10 — Aug 5: 98%Above 10 — Aug 6: 98%Above 10 — Aug 7: 96%Above 10 — Aug 8: 96%Above 10 — Aug 9: 94%94%Above 11 — Jul 29: 90%Above 11 — Jul 30: 94%Above 11 — Jul 31: 92%Above 11 — Aug 1: 92%Above 11 — Aug 2: 96%Above 11 — Aug 3: 94%Above 11 — Aug 4: 96%Above 11 — Aug 5: 95%Above 11 — Aug 6: 95%Above 11 — Aug 7: 94%Above 11 — Aug 8: 94%Above 11 — Aug 9: 94%Above 12 — Jul 28: 70%Above 12 — Jul 29: 76%Above 12 — Jul 30: 76%Above 12 — Jul 31: 74%Above 12 — Aug 1: 90%Above 12 — Aug 2: 86%Above 12 — Aug 3: 88%Above 12 — Aug 4: 86%Above 12 — Aug 5: 86%Above 12 — Aug 6: 86%Above 12 — Aug 7: 86%Above 12 — Aug 8: 84%Above 12 — Aug 9: 84%Above 13 — Jul 29: 55%Above 13 — Jul 30: 55%Above 13 — Jul 31: 50%Above 13 — Aug 1: 54%Above 13 — Aug 2: 58%Above 13 — Aug 3: 56%Above 13 — Aug 4: 52%Above 13 — Aug 5: 53%Above 13 — Aug 6: 52%Above 13 — Aug 7: 56%Above 13 — Aug 8: 55%Above 13 — Aug 9: 55%Above 14 — Jul 29: 19%Above 14 — Jul 30: 18%Above 14 — Jul 31: 16%Above 14 — Aug 1: 20%Above 14 — Aug 2: 14%Above 14 — Aug 3: 14%Above 14 — Aug 4: 18%Above 14 — Aug 5: 16%Above 14 — Aug 6: 15%Above 14 — Aug 7: 12%Above 14 — Aug 8: 12%Above 14 — Aug 9: 10%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 8TodayMove
Above 1096%94%▼ 1
Above 1194%94%▼ 1
Above 1284%84%—
Above 1355%55%▼ 1
Above 1412%10%▼ 1
Above 154%4%▼ 1
Above 162%2%—
Full history table
DateAbove 10Above 11Above 12Above 13Above 14Above 15Above 16
2026-08-0994%94%84%55%10%4%2%
2026-08-0896%94%84%55%12%4%2%
2026-08-0796%94%86%56%12%4%2%
2026-08-0698%95%86%52%15%4%2%
2026-08-0598%95%86%53%16%4%2%
2026-08-0498%96%86%52%18%4%2%
2026-08-03—94%88%56%14%6%2%
2026-08-0298%96%86%58%14%4%2%
2026-08-0196%92%90%54%20%6%2%
2026-07-3196%92%74%50%16%4%2%
2026-07-3096%94%76%55%18%6%2%
2026-07-2996%90%76%55%19%4%—
2026-07-28——70%————

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 — what are the odds?
As of August 9, 2026, Above 10 leads at 94%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 96% on July 29, 2026 to 94% on August 9, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026” for 11 days, since July 28, 2026. As of August 9, 2026, Above 10 leads the field at 94%. The chance for Above 10 has fallen from 96% to 94%, ranging between 94% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.