Final tracked odds
As of August 15, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 62%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 28 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 15, 2026
62%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | 62% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | 62% |
| 2026-08-14 | 66% |
| 2026-08-13 | 72% |
| 2026-08-07 | 90% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 62%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 90% on August 7, 2026 to 62% on August 15, 2026 — a change of 28 points.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 62% and 90%. The final reading of 62% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026” for 4 days, since August 7, 2026. As of August 15, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 62%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 90% to 62%, ranging between 62% and 90% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 15, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.