Today’s odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Mercedes the most likely outcome at 84%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Sports · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
84%
How the odds have moved
MercedesRed Bull Racing
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 84% | 84% | — |
| Red Bull Racing | 0.2% | 0.2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Mercedes | Red Bull Racing |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-28 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-27 | 84% | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-26 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 84% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 88% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 88% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 88% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 84% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 84% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 86% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 85% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion — what are the odds?
- As of July 29, 2026, Mercedes leads at 84%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 21 tracked days the odds held near 85%, ending at 84% on July 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion” for 21 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, Mercedes leads the field at 84%. The chance for Mercedes has fallen from 85% to 84%, ranging between 84% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.