Final tracked odds
As of August 26, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 9%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 26, 2026
9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 9% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 9% |
| 2026-08-24 | 5% |
| 2026-07-29 | 5% |
| 2026-07-28 | 5% |
| 2026-07-26 | 8% |
| 2026-07-25 | 8% |
| 2026-07-24 | 8% |
| 2026-07-23 | 9% |
| 2026-07-22 | 9% |
| 2026-07-16 | 5% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 14 tracked days the odds held near 10%, ending at 9% on August 26, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 14 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 10%. The final reading of 9% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 14 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 10%, ranging between 4% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.