Final tracked odds
As of September 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 29, 2026
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 24% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 24% |
| 2026-09-28 | 25% |
| 2026-09-27 | 25% |
| 2026-09-26 | 25% |
| 2026-09-25 | 25% |
| 2026-09-24 | 25% |
| 2026-09-23 | 28% |
| 2026-09-22 | 30% |
| 2026-09-21 | 29% |
| 2026-08-31 | 12% |
| 2026-08-30 | 13% |
| 2026-08-29 | 11% |
| 2026-08-28 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 9% |
| 2026-08-26 | 9% |
| 2026-08-24 | 5% |
| 2026-07-29 | 5% |
| 2026-07-28 | 5% |
| 2026-07-26 | 8% |
| 2026-07-25 | 8% |
| 2026-07-24 | 8% |
| 2026-07-23 | 9% |
| 2026-07-22 | 9% |
| 2026-07-16 | 5% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 28 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 12, 2026 to 24% on September 29, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 28 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 30%. The final reading of 24% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 28 days, since July 12, 2026. As of September 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 10% to 24%, ranging between 4% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 29, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.