Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 39%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 11 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?
Politics · tracked since September 29, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
39%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 40% | 39% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | 2 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 39% |
| 2026-10-04 | 40% |
| 2026-10-01 | 44% |
| 2026-09-30 | 48% |
| 2026-09-29 | 50% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 39%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 50% on September 29, 2026 to 39% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
- Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 39% and 50%. The final reading of 39% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election” for 5 days, since September 29, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 39%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 50% to 39%, ranging between 39% and 50% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.