Final tracked odds
As of October 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 70%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since September 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 2, 2026
70%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 72% | 70% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 70% |
| 2026-10-01 | 72% |
| 2026-09-23 | 68% |
| 2026-09-22 | 68% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 70%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 68% on September 22, 2026 to 70% on October 2, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026” for 4 days, since September 22, 2026. As of October 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 70%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 68% to 70%, ranging between 68% and 72% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.