Edition of July 12, 2026 · built from 8,373 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 11:44 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Si Woo Kim at 72% this morning. · ▲ 58 points overnight
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the minimum temperature be >73° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° or above | News | 98% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 82 |
| Genesis Scottish Open: Will John Keefer finish top 20? John Keefer | Golf | 96% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 85 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Jul 12, 2026? 70° or above | News | 96% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10? Si Woo Kim | Golf | 72% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 57 |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 140K | Culture | 88% ▲ 57 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Ferroviario vs Gremio Novorizontino Winner? Ferroviario | Sports | 80% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy | Golf | 2% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 55-56° on Jul 12, 2026? 55° to 56° | News | 96% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Will the high temp in LA be 74-75° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° to 75° | News | 4% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 44 |
| ISCO Championship: Will Ben Silverman finish top 20? Ben Silverman | Golf | 72% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 61 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| France vs Spain: To Advance France advances · settles in 2 days | World Cup | 60% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | World Cup | 39% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? France vs Argentina · settles in 7 days | World Cup | 28% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Genesis Scottish Open? Matt Fitzpatrick · settled | Golf | 26% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | World Cup | 22% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles today | Tennis | 80% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | World Cup | 20% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | World Cup | 19% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 171 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 7 days | Golf | 12% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| England vs India Winner? India · settles in 3 days | Sports | 98.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 65 |
| Ireland vs West Indies Winner? West Indies · settles today | Sports | 98.5% — |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles today | Culture | 94.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will average gas prices be above $3.860? Above 3.860 · settles today | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 96 |
| Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Above 100 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $1.999 · settles in 5 days | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 70.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $70.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Jul 12, 2026? 70° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 95.5% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >73° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 82 |