Edition of July 30, 2026 · built from 7,349 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 2% at 41% this morning. · ▼ 38 points overnight · settles in 120 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the President's approval rating be below 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Surging Below 40.2 | Politics | 86% ▲ 63 7d: ▲ 82 |
| Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Jul 26, 2026 and Aug 1, 2026? Surging Above 0 | Politics | 16% ▼ 57 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Jul 31, 2026? Surging 5.2% or above | Economy | 83% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 64 |
| Will a daily maximum air temperature of at least 103°F occur in Houston, Texas, at Houston Hobby Airport in August 2026? Yes | News | 21% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending July 31, 2026 be above 6,000? Above 6,000 | Everything Else | 22% ▼ 64 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million | Culture | 96% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 55 |
| Will Trippie Redd release a new album before Sep 1, 2026? Surging Before Sep 1, 2026 | Culture | 92% ▲ 57 7d: ▲ 57 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Jul 31, 2026? Surging 5.19% or above | Economy | 78% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 49 |
| What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call? Iran / Middle East | Everything Else | 21% ▼ 60 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Aug 14? Surging Above $4.00 | Everything Else | 28% ▼ 55 7d: ▼ 50 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 30, 2026? Above $83.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 66% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Texas vs Tampa Bay Winner? Tampa Bay | MLB | in 10 hours | 58% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88.50 USD/Bbl on July 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $88.50 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 51% — |
| New York Y vs Chicago WS Winner? New York Y | MLB | later today | 48% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 58% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 7 |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes | Culture | tomorrow | 50% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 40.2 | Politics | tomorrow | 86% ▲ 63 7d: ▲ 82 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 23% — |
| Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Above 5 inches | Everything Else | in 3 days | 42% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 80K | Culture | in 3 days | 47% ▼ 13 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? Yes | Culture | in 4 days | 89% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 | Culture | in 4 days | 33% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles tomorrow | Culture | 50% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 48 days | Economy | 56% ▼ 12 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 96 days | Politics | 64% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 30, 2026? Above $83.99 · settles today | Commodities | 66% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 33% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 63 days | Sports | 30% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 12 days | Politics | 72% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Aug 3, 2026? Ransom Canyon: Season 2 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 28% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 154 days | Everything Else | 26% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura? Cruz Azul · settles in 307 days | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 831 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 831 days | Everything Else | 19% — |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 154 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Alvaro Ariel Frutos Alonso win the Malla vs Frutos Alonso: M15 Sao Paulo Round of 32 match? Alvaro Ariel Frutos Alonso · settled | Tennis | 18% — |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 129 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 154 days | Economy | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Francisco Fontes Damorim win the Fontes Damorim vs Alves: M15 Sao Paulo Round of 32 match? Francisco Fontes Damorim · settled | Tennis | 14% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9 |
| GDP growth in 2033? 0.1% to 0.5% · settles in 2770 days | Economy | 12% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 831 days | Politics | 12% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? Yes · settles in 4 days | Culture | 89% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.7% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 64 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 97.7% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| FC Rottach-Egern vs Bayern Munich Winner? Bayern Munich · settles today | Sports | 97.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Frites Esports Club win the Once Upon A Team vs. Frites Esports Club League of Legends match? Frites Esports Club · settles today | Sports | 94.5% — |
| Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026? 10 to 24 · settles in 2 days | Politics | 96.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 76.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $76.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 95.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 74.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $74.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 96.0% ▼ 1 |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Jul 31, 2026? 5.1% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 97.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 55 |