Today’s Number
Will Josh Jacobs play in a Pro Football game in Week 1?
Market-consensus odds put Josh Jacobs at 81% this morning. · ▲ 35 points overnight · settles in 27 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of August 19, 2026
Edition of August 19, 2026 · built from 5,244 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 11:02 AM ET.
81%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for Ryan Elijah in the 2026 FL-07 Republican primary be between 12% and 16%? Surging Ryan Elijah, 12-16% | Politics | 98% ▲ 88 7d: ▲ 91 |
| Will Tan Zhongyi be rated top 5 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in September 2026? Tan Zhongyi | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 60 |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.163 at 5pm ET on Aug 21? Above 1.163 | Everything Else | 75% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62 |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7775 and 7799.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,775 to 7,799.9999 | Markets | 43% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -16%? Above -16% | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Datadog, Inc. report Above 5160 customers with arr over $100k in fiscal 2026? Above 5160 | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 43 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 38.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 21, 2026? Surging Above 38.7% | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4435.99 USD/t.oz on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4435.99 | Commodities | 72% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| B200 price up in next week? Price to Beat: 6 | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.120? Above 4.120 | Everything Else | 38% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Beatrice Ricci win the Ricci vs Panshina: W75 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 32 match? Beatrice Ricci | Tennis | within the hour | 36% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 19, 2026? Above $84.99 | Commodities | in 3 hours | 56% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Detroit vs Pittsburgh First Inning Run? Yes | MLB | in 5 hours | 46% — |
| Will Kamu Kirk be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026? Kamu Kirk | Everything Else | tomorrow | 50% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | tomorrow | 48% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7775 and 7799.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,775 to 7,799.9999 | Markets | in 2 days | 43% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will TEAM VISION win The International? TEAM VISION | Everything Else | in 3 days | 44% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 24, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 5 days | 70% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Tires: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Tires: Season 3 | Culture | in 6 days | 28% — |
| Will Tires: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Tires: Season 3 | Culture | in 6 days | 48% — |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Kamu Kirk be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026? Kamu Kirk · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 · settles in 2 days | Politics | 48% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Detroit vs Pittsburgh First Inning Run? Yes · settles today | MLB | 46% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7775 and 7799.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,775 to 7,799.9999 · settles in 2 days | Markets | 43% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Coyote vs. Acme Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 12 days | Culture | 31% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards? Tie · settles in 27 days | Culture | 30% ▼ 14 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 111 days | Economy | 28% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 27 days | Economy | 28% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 19, 2026? Above $84.49 · settles today | Commodities | 78% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will Calvin Hemery win the Brunold vs Hemery: Round Of 16 match? Calvin Hemery · | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 810 days | Politics | 21% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 133 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 108 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 810 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Anna Kelly · settles in 886 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 13 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 315 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 810 days | Politics | 13% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 6% and 9%? Darline Graham, 6-9% · settles in 371 days | Politics | 10% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Iga Swiatek win the Swiatek vs Parry: Round Of 16 match? Iga Swiatek · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes · settles in 5 days | Politics | 94.9% ▲ 1 |
| Amanda Serrano vs Lucrecia Anabella Manzur Winner? Amanda Serrano · settles in 2 days | Boxing | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 19, 2026? Above $83.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 19, 2026? Above $82.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Kifisia wins by more than 1.5 goals? Reg Time: Kifisia wins by more than 1.5 goals · settles today | Everything Else | 97.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7704.9999 on Aug 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,705 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |
| Will Trump endorse at least 25 people on Truth Social this week? At least 25 · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will the minimum temperature be >70° in Philadelphia on Aug 19, 2026? 71° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7691.76 on Aug 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Above 7691.76 · settles today | Markets | 95.5% — |