Edition of August 20, 2026 · built from 5,014 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above -16% at 50% this morning. · ▼ 42 points overnight · settles in 25 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| What will be the top AI model this month? Surging claude-opus-5-max | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 80 7d: ▼ 80 |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 21 at 10:00 AM ET? Surging Jon Ossoff | Everything Else | 82% ▲ 65 7d: ▲ 65 |
| Will Bibisara Assaubayeva be rated top 5 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in September 2026? Surging Bibisara Assaubayeva | Everything Else | 97% ▲ 60 7d: ▼ 38 |
| What will Zoom Communications, Inc. say during their next earnings call? AI Companion | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 60 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >87° in Philadelphia on Aug 20, 2026? 88° or above | News | 52% ▲ 49 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7775 and 7799.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,775 to 7,799.9999 | Markets | 7% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 3 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 19% | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -11%? Surging Above -11% | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 47 |
| Will Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -16%? Surging Above -16% | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 43 7d: ▼ 42 |
| Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -7%? Above -7% | Everything Else | 49% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 45 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the President's approval rating be exactly 39.1 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 | Politics | in 7 hours | 32% — |
| San Francisco vs Cleveland First Inning Run? Yes | MLB | in 11 hours | 42% — |
| Will Kamu Kirk be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026? Kamu Kirk | Everything Else | tomorrow | 44% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3 | Politics | tomorrow | 46% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $90.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 57% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7725 and 7749.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,725 to 7,749.9999 | Markets | tomorrow | 33% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the BMW Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | in 3 days | 24% ▲ 1 |
| Will TEAM VISION win The International? TEAM VISION | Everything Else | in 3 days | 44% ▲ 1 |
| Will Tires: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Tires: Season 3 | Culture | in 5 days | 48% — |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 13.5M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 13.5M | Culture | in 5 days | 67% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters winner? Fukuoka Hawks · settles today | Sports | 52% — |
| Coyote vs. Acme Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 11 days | Culture | 34% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7725 and 7749.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,725 to 7,749.9999 · settles tomorrow | Markets | 33% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards? Tie · settles in 26 days | Culture | 27% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 111 days | Economy | 26% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 27 days | Economy | 26% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the BMW Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 3 days | Golf | 24% ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 810 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Anna Kelly · settles in 885 days | Everything Else | 20% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 0% and 3%? Ralph Norman, 0-3% · settles in 370 days | Politics | 16% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 133 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 108 days | Sports | 84% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 810 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 84.00 and 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 21, 2026? $84.00 to $84.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 15% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 6% and 9%? Darline Graham, 6-9% · settles in 370 days | Politics | 15% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 315 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 810 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will Angela Murray be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 21, 2026? Angela Murray · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 10% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 24 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 97.2% — |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? Yes · settles in 6 days | Politics | 94.5% — |
| Amanda Serrano vs Lucrecia Anabella Manzur Winner? Amanda Serrano · settles tomorrow | Boxing | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.080? Above 4.080 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 94.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 20, 2026? Above $83.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 20, 2026? Above $82.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Portugal vs Czechia men's cricket match: Portugal wins Portugal · settles today | Sports | 97.5% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 16% · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 97.0% — |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% — |