Edition of August 23, 2026 · built from 3,353 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 28M at 78% this morning. · ▲ 31 points overnight · settles in 2 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 33 |
| Will Mallory Aurichio be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 28, 2026? Mallory Aurichio | Everything Else | 45% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will BTS win Best K-Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? BTS | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 41 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Vietnam To Advance Vietnam advances | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Dec 10, 2026? On Dec 10, 2026 | Everything Else | 72% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 38 |
| What will Sean Duffy say during Fox News Sunday? AI / Artificial Intelligence | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 38 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 28M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Surging Above 28M | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Mississippi’s upland cotton production for 2027 be above 900,000 bales? Above 900,000 bales | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 30 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Morgan Wallen have above 5M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 5M | Everything Else | 25% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 33 |
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 142 million? Above 142 million | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will TEAM VISION win the Team Spirit vs. TEAM VISION Dota 2 match? TEAM VISION | Sports | within the hour | 54% — |
| Saitama Seibu Lions wins Saitama Seibu Lions | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 56% — |
| T1 wins T1 | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 24% — |
| Alexa Karatancheva wins Alexa Karatancheva | Tennis | in 4 hours | 22% — |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-23? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 52% — |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-23? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 64% — |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 | Culture | tomorrow | 48% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $86.49 | Commodities | tomorrow | 52% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4598 USD/t.oz on August 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4598 | Commodities | tomorrow | 54% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story | Culture | in 2 days | 20% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 5 days | 24% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $86.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 52% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will TEAM VISION win the Team Spirit vs. TEAM VISION Dota 2 match? TEAM VISION · settles today | Sports | 54% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4598 USD/t.oz on August 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4598 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 54% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 325000? Above 325k · settles in 367 days | Politics | 32% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 108 days | Economy | 31% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 24 days | Economy | 30% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Democrats win exactly 11 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania? 11 · settles in 134 days | Politics | 26% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 5 |
| T1 wins T1 · settles today | Everything Else | 24% — |
| Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards? Tie · settles in 23 days | Culture | 24% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 807 days | Politics | 23% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Alexa Karatancheva wins Alexa Karatancheva · settles today | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story · settles in 2 days | Culture | 20% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Legacy wins Legacy · settles today | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 130 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 105 days | Sports | 84% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 807 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 807 days | Politics | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 312 days | NBA | 13% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 98.7% — |
| Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes · settles tomorrow | Politics | 94.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Sebastian Sorger wins Sebastian Sorger · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Tires: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Tires: Season 3 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Zaccharie Cado wins Zaccharie Cado · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will the average temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth be above 90°F for 5 or more consecutive days in the week of Aug 18, 2026? 5+ consecutive days · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| Will Darline Graham win Lexington County? Lexington · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Will the average temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth be above 90°F for 6 or more consecutive days in the week of Aug 18, 2026? 6+ consecutive days · settles tomorrow | News | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $82.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 96.0% — 7d: ▲ 3 |