Edition of August 24, 2026 · built from 3,823 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Pro Tax at 48% this morning. · ▼ 37 points overnight · settles in 129 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? Yes | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 33 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 28.5M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 28.5M | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery App Downloads for August 2026 be above 130 ? Above 130 | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14.4M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 14.4M | Culture | 2% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 42 |
| What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging Pro Tax | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW? Surging Above 91,500 MW | Everything Else | 52% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will it be reported by a Source Agency that a U.S. state has banned, suspended or paused law enforcement use of Flock Safety or other automated licence plate reader cameras before Jan 1, 2027? Yes | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will it rain in Miami on Aug 24, 2026? Miami | Everything Else | 58% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 22 million short tons? Above 22 million short tons | Everything Else | 52% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will ESPN: Live Sports & Scores App Downloads for August 2026 be above 65 ? Above 65 | Everything Else | 3% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xenia Bandurowska wins Xenia Bandurowska | Tennis | in 4 hours | 24% — |
| It Ends Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 | Culture | in 5 hours | 52% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 16% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $84.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 49% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will AS Roma win on 2026-08-24? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 56% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4618 USD/t.oz on August 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4618 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 67% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° in Los Angeles on Aug 24, 2026? 86° to 87° | News | tomorrow | 30% — |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins India | Sports | in 4 days | 76% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Mallory Aurichio be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 28, 2026? Mallory Aurichio | Everything Else | in 4 days | 44% — 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 4 days | 24% — |
| Will Long Way Home by STELLA LEFTY have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 21, 2026 - August 27, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K | Culture | in 6 days | 54% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will there be at least 1 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 23, 2026? At least 1 | Politics | in 6 days | 10% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Mallory Aurichio be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 28, 2026? Mallory Aurichio · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 44% — 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 300000? Above 300k · settles in 366 days | Politics | 64% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 6%? Darline Graham, ≥6% · settles in 366 days | Politics | 36% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles today | Commodities | 34% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 23 days | Economy | 31% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 107 days | Economy | 30% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards? Tie · settles in 22 days | Culture | 27% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will I Knew It, I Knew You be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Sep 5, 2026 I Knew It, I Knew You · settles in 16 days | Culture | 74% — |
| Sri Lanka vs India match: India wins India · settles in 4 days | Sports | 76% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 806 days | Politics | 23% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4598 USD/t.oz on August 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4598 · settles today | Commodities | 78% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 129 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 806 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 104 days | Sports | 86% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 806 days | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 311 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Chun-Chien Hou wins Chun-Chien Hou · | Tennis | 12% — |
| Will the maximum temperature be >87° in Los Angeles on Aug 24, 2026? 88° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Don't Say Good Luck be Top Global Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? Don't Say Good Luck · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will Don't Say Good Luck be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? Don't Say Good Luck · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will John Hart win the 2026 Greater Wellington Wairarapa by-election? John Hart · settles today | Politics | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Alejandro Garcia Carbajal wins Alejandro Garcia Carbajal · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Mayuka Aikawa wins Mayuka Aikawa · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will Darline Graham win Lexington County? Lexington · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 93.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $82.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Vietnam To Advance Vietnam advances · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 96.0% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 24, 2026? Above $80.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% ▲ 1 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >84° in Las Vegas on Aug 24, 2026? 85° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% — |