Today’s Number
H100 SXM price up in next week?
Market-consensus odds put Price to Beat: 2.88 at 31% this morning. · ▼ 20 points overnight · settles in 2 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of August 26, 2026
Edition of August 26, 2026 · built from 3,541 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
31%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| TCU wins TCU | College | 95% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit rule affirms in its entirety the district court's October 20, 2025 final judgment for Harvard? Before 2029 | Sports | 34% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <79° in Boston on Aug 26, 2026? 78° or below | News | 66% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Will the total number of tokens included in OpenRouter's AI Model Rankings for August 24 through August 30, 2026 be above 110T tokens? Above 110T tokens | Everything Else | 93% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Olivia Miles win Finals MVP in the 2026 season? Olivia Miles | WNBA | 46% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream (excluding Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center)? Biden | Everything Else | 52% ▲ 28 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Bahamas wins Bahamas | Everything Else | 53% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement? Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Everything Else | 69% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $87.99 | Commodities | 20% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 23 |
| Will Jon Ossoff be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 28 at 10:00 AM ET? Surging Jon Ossoff | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 22 7d: ▼ 10 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yuno Kitahara wins Yuno Kitahara | Tennis | within the hour | 50% — |
| Marat Salbiev wins Marat Salbiev | Tennis | in 3 hours | 22% — |
| Aurora Gaming wins Aurora Gaming | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 50% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 54% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be exactly 39.7 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.7 | Politics | in 7 hours | 35% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 26, 2026? Above $79.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 48% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7677.28 on Aug 26, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Above 7677.28 | Markets | later today | 48% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 2 days | 34% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 9 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 5 days | 36% — |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 24% ▲ 12 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 | Culture | in 6 days | 54% — |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz · settles today | Everything Else | 54% — |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 54% — |
| Will Some of Your Love be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Sep 5, 2026 Some of Your Love · settles in 14 days | Culture | 46% — |
| Sophie Triquart wins Sophie Triquart · | Tennis | 42% — |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 105 days | Economy | 34% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.7 and 39.9 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.7 to 39.9 · settles in 2 days | Politics | 32% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 21 days | Economy | 32% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 26, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 74% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 804 days | Politics | 23% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Marat Salbiev wins Marat Salbiev · settles today | Tennis | 22% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster · settles today | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 127 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 804 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 804 days | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 102 days | Sports | 86% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 309 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Hakeem Jeffries · settles in 135 days | Politics | 12% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 82.00 and 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026? $82.00 to $82.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 10% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Yes · settles in 6 days | Politics | 95.5% — |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 94.0% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Lea Boskovic wins Lea Boskovic · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Abdulhamid Mubarak wins Abdulhamid Mubarak · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.040? Above 4.040 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15M daily views at any point during August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026? Above 15M · settles in 6 days | Culture | 96.0% — |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14.5M daily views at any point during August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026? Above 14.5M · settles in 6 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $77.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 93.5% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.51 USD/Lbs on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.51 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 93.0% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7639.9999 on Aug 26, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,640 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |