Edition of August 27, 2026 · built from 3,670 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Before Jan 1, 2027 at 81% this morning. · ▲ 30 points overnight · settles in 134 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Some of Your Love be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Sep 5, 2026 Some of Your Love | Culture | 6% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Above 6.4% Surging Above 6.4% | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Aug 24, 2026 to Aug 30, 2026? Above 250 | Everything Else | 51% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Dec 14, 2026? On Dec 14, 2026 | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 28, 2026? Surging Drew Campbell | Everything Else | 41% ▲ 27 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 | Culture | 15% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.63 USD/Lbs on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.63 | Commodities | 21% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 35 |
| South Carolina St. wins South Carolina St. | College | 93% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" before Aug 31, 2026? Barack Hussein Obama | Everything Else | 44% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Los Angeles G wins by more than 1.5 goals? Los Angeles G wins by more than 1.5 goals | MLS | 42% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 32 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nongshim Red Force wins Nongshim Red Force | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 76% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 27, 2026? Above $81.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 47% — |
| Will Drew Campbell be eliminated from Big Brother Season 28 before Aug 28, 2026? Drew Campbell | Everything Else | tomorrow | 41% ▲ 27 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | tomorrow | 44% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on August 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $85.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 60% ▲ 7 7d: ▼ 31 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov wins Umar Nurmagomedov | UFC | in 2 days | 84% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the TOUR Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | in 3 days | 22% — |
| Will India win? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 20% — |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 4 days | 26% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 31, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 4 days | 46% ▼ 16 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 | Culture | in 5 days | 15% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? Yes | Everything Else | in 6 days | 77% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 · settles tomorrow | Politics | 44% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 20 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 27, 2026? Above $81.49 · settles today | Commodities | 63% — |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 104 days | Economy | 34% — 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 20 days | Economy | 33% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 6 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 26% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| England wins England · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 74% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 803 days | Politics | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Nongshim Red Force wins Nongshim Red Force · settles today | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the TOUR Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 3 days | Golf | 22% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 82.00 and 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026? $82.00 to $82.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 18% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov wins Umar Nurmagomedov · settles in 2 days | UFC | 84% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 15% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 126 days | Culture | 85% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 803 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 803 days | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 101 days | Sports | 86% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 308 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 126 days | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Hakeem Jeffries · settles in 134 days | Politics | 10% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 5 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Germany wins Germany · settles today | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Caroline Dubois wins Caroline Dubois · settles in 2 days | Boxing | 94.0% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Drake wins Drake · settles today | College | 95.0% ▲ 21 7d: ▲ 21 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 93.5% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will it rain in New Orleans on Aug 27, 2026? New Orleans · settles tomorrow | News | 94.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will EURUSD be Above 1.155 at 5pm ET on Aug 28? Above 1.155 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 27, 2026? Above $79.49 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 27, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 94.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |