Today’s Number
Will Tom Begich drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026?
Market-consensus odds put Tom Begich at 57% this morning. · ▲ 52 points overnight · settles in 11 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of August 28, 2026
Edition of August 28, 2026 · built from 4,212 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
57%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will The Whisper Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? The Whisper Man | Culture | 18% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Will Facing El Chapo be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? Surging Facing El Chapo | Culture | 10% ▼ 58 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will Tom Begich drop out of the Alaska Governor race before Sep 1, 2026? Surging Tom Begich | Politics | 57% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Stealth market share this week? Above 4.5% | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15.2M daily views at any point during August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026? Above 15.2M | Culture | 34% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Will The Drew Barrymore Show win the Outstanding Main Title and Graphic Design for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards? The Drew Barrymore Show | Culture | 49% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Beauty in Black: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Beauty in Black: Season 3 | Culture | 74% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| What will Snowflake say during their next earnings call? Snowflake Intelligence | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Tom McKibbin leads at the end of Round 1 Tom McKibbin | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 33 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Bessonov wins Dmitry Bessonov | Tennis | in 3 hours | 34% — |
| OKSavingsBank BRION wins OKSavingsBank BRION | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 26% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,603.00 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 58% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026? Above $82.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 62% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 66% — |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the TOUR Championship? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | tomorrow | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 3 days | 49% ▼ 14 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 31, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 3 days | 33% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 34 |
| England wins England | Everything Else | in 4 days | 58% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1 | Culture | in 4 days | 82% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 41% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 49% ▼ 14 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Jacob Fearnley wins Jacob Fearnley · | Tennis | 55% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| England wins England · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 58% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,603.00 · settles today | Commodities | 58% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026? Above $82.99 · settles today | Commodities | 62% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 19 days | Economy | 32% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 103 days | Economy | 30% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| OKSavingsBank BRION wins OKSavingsBank BRION · settles today | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the TOUR Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles tomorrow | Golf | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 802 days | Politics | 24% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. House of Representatives adjourns from substantive floor business for its pre-election 2026 recess before Sep 26, 2026? Before Sep 26, 2026 · settles in 75 days | Politics | 22% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 802 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 125 days | Culture | 86% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 802 days | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 126 days | Everything Else | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 307 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Beauty in Black: Season 3 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Beauty in Black: Season 3 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 100 days | Sports | 90% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? Hakeem Jeffries · settles in 133 days | Politics | 10% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 97.9% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Gabriel Ghetu wins Gabriel Ghetu · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Heorhii Shylov wins Heorhii Shylov · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Serbia wins Serbia · settles today | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 15 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 37 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026? Above $80.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Long Way Home by STELLA LEFTY have above 37000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 21, 2026 - August 27, 2026 tracking week? Above 37K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026? Above $79.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >86° in Las Vegas on Aug 28, 2026? 87° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7694.9999 on Aug 28, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,695 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.5% — |