Edition of August 30, 2026 · built from 4,276 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Kentucky Christian Knights at 52% this morning. · ▲ 44 points overnight · settles in 5 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 Collin Morikawa | Golf | 24% ▼ 56 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Collin Morikawa finishes top 5 Collin Morikawa | Golf | 4% ▼ 49 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Alex Smalley finishes top 20 Surging Alex Smalley | Golf | 16% ▼ 52 7d: ▼ 43 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15.9M daily views at any point during August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026? Above 15.9M | Culture | 2% ▼ 57 7d: ▼ 57 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <86° in Chicago on Aug 30, 2026? 85° or below | News | 72% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Kentucky Christian Knights wins Surging Kentucky Christian Knights | College | 52% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >83° in Los Angeles on Aug 30, 2026? 84° or above | News | 63% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 30 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.078? Above 4.078 | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <82° in New York on Aug 30, 2026? 81° or below | News | 62% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will Drake have above 14M daily views at any point during August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026? Above 14M | Everything Else | 47% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rudolf Molleker wins Rudolf Molleker | Tennis | in 2 hours | 57% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 42% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-30? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 36% — |
| G2 wins G2 | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 53% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Real Madrid wins by more than 2.5 goals? Real Madrid wins by more than 2.5 goals | La Liga | in 10 hours | 56% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | tomorrow | 50% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 31, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | tomorrow | 28% ▲ 11 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $81.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 79% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 64% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7711.76 on Aug 31, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Above 7711.76 | Markets | tomorrow | 54% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will The Whisper Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? The Whisper Man | Culture | in 2 days | 36% ▲ 16 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.7 and 39.9 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.7 to 39.9 | Politics | in 5 days | 26% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 50% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 17 days | Economy | 52% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 17 days | Economy | 48% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Rudolf Molleker wins Rudolf Molleker · settles today | Tennis | 57% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster · settles today | Everything Else | 42% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Brazil unemployment rate in August 2026? Above 5.3% · settles in 38 days | Economy | 40% — 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will The Whisper Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? The Whisper Man · settles in 2 days | Culture | 36% ▲ 16 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 31, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election · settles tomorrow | Politics | 28% ▲ 11 7d: ▼ 39 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 800 days | Politics | 25% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. House of Representatives adjourns from substantive floor business for its pre-election 2026 recess before Sep 26, 2026? Before Sep 26, 2026 · settles in 73 days | Politics | 22% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $81.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 79% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the TOUR Championship? Scottie Scheffler · | Golf | 18% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 800 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 305 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 124 days | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.080? Above 4.080 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 10% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 54 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 98 days | Sports | 90% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 800 days | Politics | 10% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| England wins England · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 97.5% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Laurent Lokoli wins Laurent Lokoli · settles today | Tennis | 97.0% — |
| Will Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Elena Rybakina wins Elena Rybakina · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $80.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 93.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Beauty in Black: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Beauty in Black: Season 3 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 93.5% — 7d: ▲ 60 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $80.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 95.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >80° in Las Vegas on Aug 30, 2026? 81° or above · settles tomorrow | News | 95.5% — |