Edition of September 1, 2026 · built from 4,235 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 41.5% at 56% this morning. · ▲ 49 points overnight · settles in 37 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for August 2026 be above 41.5%? Surging Above 41.5% | Everything Else | 56% ▲ 49 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Dolly Parton have a top 10 song this year? Surging Dolly Parton | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 35 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.020? Above 4.020 | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| J.J. McCarthy's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Los Angeles C Los Angeles C | NFL | 12% ▼ 42 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will The Young and the Restless win the Outstanding Directing Team for a Daytime Drama Series award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards? The Young and the Restless | Culture | 10% ▼ 36 |
| What will Macy's say during their next earnings call? AI | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| New Mexico wins Surging New Mexico | College | 92% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will it be reported by Valmyndigheten, the Swedish Election Authority that the Orebro Party wins at least one seat in the Riksdag in the 2026 Swedish general election before Sep 25, 2026? Örebropartiet | Politics | 57% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Nov 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Centre Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election? At least 10% | Politics | 12% ▼ 24 7d: ▲ 6 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Siniakov wins Daniel Siniakov | Tennis | within the hour | 47% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 11% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| South Africa wins South Africa | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 76% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 80% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026? Above $87.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 48% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4406 USD/t.oz on September 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4406 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 23% — |
| Boston wins Boston | MLB | later today | 55% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 82% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 3 days | 26% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| RTX 5090 price up in next week? Price to Beat: 0.53 | Culture | in 3 days | 52% ▲ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will WILDCHILD by Alex Warren have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 75K | Culture | in 5 days | 40% — |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 7, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 6 days | 19% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Karishma Manzur receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary? At least 35% · settles in 372 days | Politics | 52% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 15 days | Economy | 56% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will it be reported by Valmyndigheten, the Swedish Election Authority that the Orebro Party wins at least one seat in the Riksdag in the 2026 Swedish general election before Sep 25, 2026? Örebropartiet · settles in 34 days | Politics | 57% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 15 days | Economy | 42% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Hanna Bougouffa wins Hanna Bougouffa · | Tennis | 33% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will there be at least 60 wide film releases in Q4 2026? At least 60 · settles in 142 days | Culture | 71% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 798 days | Politics | 25% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| South Africa wins South Africa · settles today | Everything Else | 76% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4406 USD/t.oz on September 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4406 · settles today | Commodities | 23% — |
| Will Rockstar Games release GTA VI Online to the public before 2027? GTA VI Online · settles in 122 days | Culture | 17% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Yi Zhou wins Yi Zhou · | Tennis | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 122 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 798 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 272 days | Champions League | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026? Above $86.49 · settles today | Commodities | 86% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 55 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 303 days | NBA | 13% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster · settles today | Everything Else | 11% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 798 days | Politics | 11% — 7d: ▼ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Lajal wins Mark Lajal · settles today | Tennis | 93.0% — |
| Rahul Dhokia wins Rahul Dhokia · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026? Above $85.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will it rain in Houston on Sep 1, 2026? Houston · settles tomorrow | News | 93.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.020? Above 4.020 · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.000? Above 4.000 · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |