Edition of September 3, 2026 · built from 3,015 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Udinese wins by more than 2.5 goals at 48% this morning. · ▲ 44 points overnight · settles in 5 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese wins by more than 2.5 goals? Surging Udinese wins by more than 2.5 goals | Serie A | 48% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >80° in Boston on Sep 3, 2026? 81° or above | News | 12% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
| Will Bass Persuades by Miley Cyrus have above 400000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week? Above 400K | Culture | 50% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48 |
| What will be the top AI model this month? Surging claude-opus-5-max | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)? Qwen | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Will Diesel Price on September 7, 2026 be above $5.80? Above $5.80 | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Oklahoma St. scores over 48.5 points Oklahoma St. over 48.5 points scored | College | 50% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Elche wins by more than 2.5 goals? Surging Elche wins by more than 2.5 goals | La Liga | 36% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz? Before Oct 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Oct 1, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | 34% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 31 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,435.01 | Commodities | within the hour | 60% — |
| Pedro Vives Marcos wins Pedro Vives Marcos | Tennis | in 3 hours | 55% — |
| Doosan Bears wins Doosan Bears | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 66% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Zimbabwe wins Zimbabwe | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 60% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026? Above $90.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 62% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 87% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62 |
| St. Louis wins St. Louis | MLB | later today | 28% — |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-04? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 70% — |
| Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above 105000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 105K | Culture | in 3 days | 60% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 23 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Sep 7, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 4 days | 46% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will Death of a pastors Wife be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 7, 2026? Death of a pastors Wife | Culture | in 5 days | 79% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 13 days | Economy | 50% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 13 days | Economy | 48% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Zimbabwe wins Zimbabwe · settles today | Everything Else | 60% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026? Above $90.99 · settles today | Commodities | 62% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Doosan Bears wins Doosan Bears · settles today | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| St. Louis wins St. Louis · settles today | MLB | 28% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 796 days | Politics | 25% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 4th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Ronaldo Caiado · settles in 62 days | Politics | 24% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Rockstar Games release GTA VI Online to the public before 2027? GTA VI Online · settles in 120 days | Culture | 18% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $100.50 by Sep 30, 2026? 100.51 or above · settles in 28 days | Commodities | 18% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 7, 2026? Ceasefire · settles in 4 days | Politics | 18% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 80 · settles in 11 days | Culture | 16% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 210 days | NFL | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 120 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 796 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 301 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 796 days | Politics | 13% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Oleksandra Oliynykova wins Oleksandra Oliynykova · | Tennis | 12% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.000? Above 4.000 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.060? Above 4.060 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026? Above $88.99 · settles today | Commodities | 94.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 3, 2026? Above $88.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| PSG wins PSG · settles in 7 days | Champions League | 94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 15 million views? At least 15 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will it rain in Boston on Sep 3, 2026? Boston · settles tomorrow | News | 98.0% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 18 million views? At least 18 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Yuta Tomida wins Yuta Tomida · settles today | Tennis | 96.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7599.9999 on Sep 3, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,600 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.0% — |