Edition of September 4, 2026 · built from 3,289 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Switzerland / Swiss at 78% this morning. · ▲ 36 points overnight · settles in 27 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Death of a pastors Wife be Top Global Netflix Show on Sep 7, 2026? Death of a pastors Wife | Culture | 90% ▲ 80 7d: ▲ 80 |
| Will it rain in Chicago on Sep 4, 2026? Chicago | News | 22% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >83° in Phoenix on Sep 4, 2026? 84° or above | News | 58% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| North Dakota wins by over 27.5 points North Dakota wins by over 27.5 points | College | 67% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will The Phase by MONSTA X have above 5000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 5M | Culture | 8% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes score? Surging Above 70 | Culture | 7% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 | Culture | 46% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 19 |
| Will Cookie Happened by Eels have above 500000 streams during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week? Above 500K | Culture | 37% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will Trump say "Switzerland / Swiss" before Oct 1, 2026? Surging Switzerland / Swiss | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Mississippi St. scores over 60.5 points Mississippi St. over 60.5 points scored | College | 4% ▼ 45 7d: ▼ 45 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 57% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Laia Petretic wins Laia Petretic | Tennis | in 3 hours | 25% — |
| Anyone's Legend wins Anyone's Legend | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 66% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,477.84 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 48% — |
| Alexander Bublik wins Alexander Bublik | Tennis | in 9 hours | 40% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-04? Yes | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 64% — |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-04? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 64% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29529.99 at the end of Sep 4, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,530 or above | Markets | later today | 65% — |
| Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above 105000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 105K | Culture | in 2 days | 68% ▼ 14 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will Death of a pastors Wife be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 7, 2026? Death of a pastors Wife | Culture | in 4 days | 87% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 22 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 66 days | Culture | 46% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 19 |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster · settles today | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 12 days | Economy | 60% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 12 days | Economy | 40% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Alexander Bublik wins Alexander Bublik · settles today | Tennis | 40% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29529.99 at the end of Sep 4, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,530 or above · settles today | Markets | 65% — |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $100.50 by Sep 30, 2026? 100.51 or above · settles in 27 days | Commodities | 33% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 4th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Ronaldo Caiado · settles in 61 days | Politics | 26% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Laia Petretic wins Laia Petretic · settles today | Tennis | 25% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 795 days | Politics | 24% — |
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 50 · settles in 10 days | Culture | 79% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 209 days | NFL | 18% — |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Maria Bartiromo · settles in 870 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 795 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 119 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 795 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 300 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Augusto Cury finish 5th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Augusto Cury · settles in 61 days | Politics | 12% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 99.2% — 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes · settles in 4 days | Politics | 95.7% — |
| Aryna Sabalenka wins Aryna Sabalenka · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Nina Radovanovic wins Nina Radovanovic · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will The Whisper Man Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 7, 2026? The Whisper Man · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Australia wins Australia · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will The Whisper Man be Top Global Netflix Movie on Sep 7, 2026? The Whisper Man · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026? Above $86.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 88.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026? Above $88.49 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7699.9999 on Sep 4, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,700 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.5% — |