Edition of September 5, 2026 · built from 3,663 live consensus forecasts across 7 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Hotel at 64% this morning. · ▼ 26 points overnight · settles in 19 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Beauty in Black be #2 Global Netflix Show on Sep 7, 2026? Beauty in Black | Culture | 74% ▲ 60 7d: ▲ 60 |
| Will it rain in Washington DC on Sep 5, 2026? Washington DC | News | 26% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Onslaught Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 57 | Culture | 2% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 25 million views? At least 25 million | Culture | 87% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Sep 19, 2026 Choosin' Texas | Culture | 58% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 35 |
| Ryan Gerard finishes top 20 Ryan Gerard | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 4 |
| What will be the top AI model this month? claude-fable-5.1-max | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 33 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <83° in Chicago on Sep 5, 2026? 82° or below | News | 52% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will the Federal Trade Commission sue YouTube over account suspensions, account terminations, demonetization, or related content-enforcement practices before 2027? Before Jan 2027 | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will Kendrick Lamar have above 6M daily views at any point during September 2026? Above 6M | Everything Else | 83% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 24 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top Esports wins Top Esports | Everything Else | within the hour | 30% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Jake Fellows wins Jake Fellows | Tennis | in 3 hours | 55% — |
| Gen.G wins Gen.G | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 40% ▼ 17 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Nicola Rispoli wins Nicola Rispoli | Tennis | in 4 hours | 24% — |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-05? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 40% — |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-05? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 44% — |
| Will Don’t Look Down by Rod Wave have above 108000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 108K | Culture | tomorrow | 14% ▼ 13 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 25 million views? At least 25 million | Culture | in 3 days | 87% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $89.99 | Commodities | in 3 days | 65% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics? 40.0 to 40.2 | Politics | in 6 days | 20% — |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.63% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.64% or above | Economy | in 6 days | 22% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 11 days | Economy | 50% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 11 days | Economy | 48% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Jake Fellows wins Jake Fellows · settles today | Tennis | 55% — |
| Wild Horse Nine Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 65 days | Culture | 56% ▼ 16 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 794 days | Politics | 40% — |
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 50 · settles in 9 days | Culture | 62% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $89.99 · settles in 3 days | Commodities | 65% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Top Esports wins Top Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? At least 35% · settles in 60 days | Politics | 74% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 794 days | Politics | 25% ▲ 1 |
| Nicola Rispoli wins Nicola Rispoli · settles today | Tennis | 24% — |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $100.50 by Sep 30, 2026? 100.51 or above · settles in 26 days | Commodities | 21% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 208 days | NFL | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Maria Bartiromo · settles in 869 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 118 days | Everything Else | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 794 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 299 days | NBA | 11% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Augusto Cury finish 5th in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Augusto Cury · settles in 60 days | Politics | 10% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 96.0% — |
| Will Death of a pastors Wife be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 7, 2026? Death of a pastors Wife · settles in 3 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Will The Whisper Man Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 7, 2026? The Whisper Man · settles in 3 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Spain wins Spain · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Carolyn Ansari wins Carolyn Ansari · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Alesia Breaz wins Alesia Breaz · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| France wins France · settles today | Everything Else | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $83.99 · settles in 3 days | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.20% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.21% or above · settles in 6 days | Economy | 97.0% — |