Today’s Number
What will Kelly Ortberg say during Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference 2026?
Market-consensus odds put Supply Chain at 88% this morning. · ▲ 36 points overnight · settles in 24 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of September 7, 2026
Edition of September 7, 2026 · built from 4,982 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
88%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Grok App Downloads for September 2026 be above 30 ? Above 30 | Everything Else | 57% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will Boston be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Sep 19, 2026 Boston | Culture | 96% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will Future have above 7M daily views at any point during August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026? Above 7M | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| Florida wins the 1st half Florida wins 1st Half | College | 97% ▲ 44 |
| Will Turning Point: Generation 9/11 be #2 Global Netflix Movie on Sep 7, 2026? Surging Turning Point: Generation 9/11 | Culture | 36% ▲ 32 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Tate McRae have above 5M daily views at any point during August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026? Above 5M | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 44 |
| Will it be confirmed that Lara Trump speaks as part of official programming at the 2026 Republican Midterm Convention? Lara Trump | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be at least 1 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Sep 6, 2026? At least 1 | Politics | 9% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2027? Surging Before Jan 1, 2027 | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 22 |
| 2026/27 Bering Sea snow crab fishery closed? Closed | News | 38% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 33 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grigoriy Lomakin wins Grigoriy Lomakin | Tennis | within the hour | 57% — |
| Australia wins Australia | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 56% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,411.06 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 66% — |
| Al Hilal wins Al Hilal | Everything Else | in 12 hours | 82% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? Yes | Politics | later today | 84% — |
| Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Yes | Politics | later today | 86% — |
| SMU wins by over 2.5 points SMU wins by over 2.5 points | College | later today | 52% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Turning Point: Generation 9/11 be #2 Global Netflix Movie on Sep 7, 2026? Turning Point: Generation 9/11 | Culture | tomorrow | 36% ▲ 26 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 46% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $91.49 | Commodities | tomorrow | 52% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15.9M daily views at any point during August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026? Above 15.9M | Culture | in 3 days | 38% ▲ 23 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will the President's approval rating be below 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 38.8 | Politics | in 4 days | 30% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 9 days | Economy | 52% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 9 days | Economy | 48% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $91.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 52% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 4 |
| SMU wins by over 2.5 points SMU wins by over 2.5 points · settles today | College | 52% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 50 · settles in 7 days | Culture | 48% ▼ 16 7d: ▼ 47 |
| Grigoriy Lomakin wins Grigoriy Lomakin · settles today | Tennis | 57% — |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 792 days | Politics | 40% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Rockstar Games release GTA VI Online to the public before 2027? GTA VI Online · settles in 116 days | Culture | 34% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? At least 35% · settles in 58 days | Politics | 72% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $100.50 by Sep 30, 2026? 100.51 or above · settles in 24 days | Commodities | 27% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will Parti Québécois finish 2nd in the 2026 Quebec general election? Parti Québécois · settles in 59 days | Politics | 26% — 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 792 days | Politics | 25% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes · settles in 6 days | Tennis | 22% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Al Hilal wins Al Hilal · settles today | Everything Else | 82% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary of United States? Maria Bartiromo · settles in 867 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 116 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 792 days | Everything Else | 14% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 297 days | NBA | 12% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Yanis Ghazouani Durand wins Yanis Ghazouani Durand · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will Beauty in Black be #2 US Netflix Show on Sep 7, 2026? Beauty in Black · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 1 |
| France wins France · settles today | Everything Else | 94.5% — |
| Carlos Giraldi wins Carlos Giraldi · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 30 million views? At least 30 million · settles tomorrow | Culture | 95.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 73 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026? Above $84.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026? Above $85.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.25% or above · settles in 4 days | Economy | 93.0% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.20% on Sep 11, 2026? 4.21% or above · settles in 4 days | Economy | 98.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 3 |