Today’s Number
Manchester City To Advance
Market-consensus odds put Manchester City advances at 86% this morning. · ▲ 39 points overnight · settles in 6 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of September 12, 2026
Edition of September 12, 2026 · built from 3,275 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
86%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Diesel Price on September 14, 2026 be above $6.22? Above $6.22 | Everything Else | 73% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 24% | Everything Else | 74% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
| Manchester City To Advance Surging Manchester City advances | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Justin Bieber have above 16.5M daily views on Sep 11, 2026? Above 16.5M | Everything Else | 49% ▲ 36 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 30.5M daily views on Sep 11, 2026? Above 30.5M | Everything Else | 49% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Wildwood Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 80 | Culture | 87% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will the average U.S. wholesale price of whole chicken wings in September 2026 be above 115¢ per pound? Above 115¢ per pound | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 29 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Bilateral Meeting with the Taoiseach of Ireland on September 12, 2026? European Union / EU | Everything Else | 44% ▲ 26 |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 16M daily views on Sep 11, 2026? Above 16M | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will Drake have above 12.25M daily views on Sep 11, 2026? Above 12.25M | Everything Else | 54% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy wins Legacy | Everything Else | within the hour | 40% — |
| G2 wins G2 | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 66% — |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 64% — |
| Aryna Sabalenka wins Aryna Sabalenka | Tennis | later today | 57% — |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes | Politics | later today | 72% ▼ 14 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 28000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 28M | Culture | tomorrow | 32% — |
| Ben Shelton wins Ben Shelton | Tennis | tomorrow | 44% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $99.49 | Commodities | in 2 days | 42% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4350 USD/t.oz on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4350 | Commodities | in 2 days | 54% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 43% — |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14.9M daily views on Sep 11, 2026? Above 14.9M | Culture | in 3 days | 52% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | in 4 days | 20% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 30 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Fredrick Love receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election? At least 42% · settles in 113 days | Politics | 44% — |
| Ben Shelton wins Ben Shelton · settles tomorrow | Tennis | 44% — |
| Legacy wins Legacy · settles today | Everything Else | 40% — |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 787 days | Politics | 60% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Virginia McIntyre receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-25 House election? At least 34% · settles in 113 days | Politics | 63% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 45 · settles in 37 days | Culture | 64% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 6 |
| G2 wins G2 · settles today | Everything Else | 66% — |
| Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 28000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 28M · settles tomorrow | Culture | 32% — |
| Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.00 by Sep 30, 2026? 120.01 or above · settles in 19 days | Commodities | 26% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 787 days | Politics | 24% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 4 days | Economy | 78% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 4 days | Economy | 20% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 14, 2026? Above $102.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 18% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 111 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 201 days | NFL | 14% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 787 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 292 days | NBA | 11% — |
| Grigory Shebekin wins Grigory Shebekin · settles today | Tennis | 10% — |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 98.7% — |
| USA wins USA · settles today | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will it rain in Atlanta on Sep 12, 2026? Atlanta · settles tomorrow | News | 93.0% — |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.599 USD/MMBtu on September 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $2.599 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 97.0% — |
| Dallas over 3.5 points scored Dallas over 3.5 points scored · settles tomorrow | NFL | 96.5% — |
| Indiana wins 1H by over 13.5 points Indiana wins 1H by over 13.5 points · settles today | College | 97.5% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4250 USD/t.oz on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4250 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 93.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.70% on Sep 14, 2026? 4.71% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 97.5% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% on Sep 14, 2026? 5.29% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 97.0% — |
| Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 27000000 streams during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week? Above 27M · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.5% — |