Edition of September 15, 2026 · built from 4,295 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 84% this morning. · ▼ 9 points overnight · settles in 472 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3400? Above 4.3400 | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 3.25% | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 40 |
| Detroit over 20.5 1H points scored Detroit over 20.5 1H points scored | NFL | 13% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st? Alibaba | Everything Else | 87% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Diesel Price on September 21, 2026 be above $6.32? Above $6.32 | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will I Play Rocky win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? I Play Rocky | Culture | 24% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 27.6% | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 36 |
| New York J over 19.5 1H points scored New York J over 19.5 1H points scored | NFL | 7% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will Westside Whimsy by Jhené Aiko have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week? Above 75K | Culture | 64% ▼ 28 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Tencent market share this week? Above 2.7% | Everything Else | 94% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 Academy wins T1 Academy | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 78% — |
| Artur Kukasian wins Artur Kukasian | Tennis | in 3 hours | 86% — |
| Australia wins Australia | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 66% ▼ 26 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 15, 2026? Above $102.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 62% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | later today | 12% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes | Economy | later today | 88% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Buffalo wins by over 4.5 points? Buffalo wins by over 4.5 points | NFL | in 3 days | 50% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 3 days | 24% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 101.99 USD/Bbl on September 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $101.99 | Commodities | in 3 days | 56% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 28% — |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 days | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Westside Whimsy by Jhené Aiko have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week? Above 75K | Culture | in 5 days | 64% ▼ 28 7d: ▲ 46 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Kaplan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 SC-05 House election? At least 1% · settles in 110 days | Politics | 50% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Don Beyer receive at least 78% of the popular vote in the 2026 VA-08 House election? At least 78% · settles in 110 days | Politics | 52% — 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 102.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 15, 2026? Above $102.99 · settles today | Commodities | 62% — |
| Will Westside Whimsy by Jhené Aiko have above 75000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week? Above 75K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 64% ▼ 28 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Australia wins Australia · settles today | Everything Else | 66% ▼ 26 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29089.99 at the end of Sep 15, 2026 at 11am EDT? 29,090 or above · settles today | Markets | 66% — |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes · settles in 108 days | Politics | 66% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 784 days | Politics | 23% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| T1 Academy wins T1 Academy · settles today | Everything Else | 78% — |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 166 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Shintaro Mochizuki wins Shintaro Mochizuki · settles today | Tennis | 18% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 108 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Artur Kukasian wins Artur Kukasian · settles today | Tennis | 86% — |
| Will Fjord win the People's Choice Award at 2026 Toronto International Film Festival? Fjord · settles in 7 days | Culture | 13% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 784 days | Everything Else | 13% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles today | Economy | 12% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles today | Economy | 88% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 198 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 289 days | NBA | 11% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 97.7% — 7d: ▲ 56 |
| Mona Barthel wins Mona Barthel · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Elizara Yaneva wins Elizara Yaneva · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will Westside Whimsy by Jhené Aiko have above 70000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week? Above 70K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 78 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 15, 2026? Above $99.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 15, 2026? Above $98.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2800? Above 4.2800 · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 97.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28769.99 at the end of Sep 15, 2026 at 10am EDT? 28,770 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Sep 18, 2026? 5.25% or above · settles in 3 days | Economy | 94.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.98% on Sep 15, 2026? 4.99% or above · settles today | Economy | 94.5% — |