Edition of September 18, 2026 · built from 3,460 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 5M at 50% this morning. · ▲ 39 points overnight · settles in 6 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Angie Nixon win Duval County? Duval | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will COCOON by Yeat have above 15000000 streams during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week? Above 15M | Culture | 83% ▲ 50 7d: ▲ 50 |
| What will Aneel Bhusri say during Workday Rising 2026 — Innovation Keynote? Agent | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 51 |
| Will it rain in Boston on Sep 18, 2026? Boston | News | 8% ▼ 34 |
| Will Morgan Wallen have above 5M daily views at any point during September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026? Surging Above 5M | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 36 |
| WTA Guadalajara: Iva Jovic wins Iva Jovic | Tennis | 58% ▲ 34 |
| Will KATSEYE have above 21M daily views at any point during September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026? Surging Above 21M | Everything Else | 46% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 29M daily views at any point during September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026? Above 29M | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 15M daily views at any point during September 14, 2026 - September 20, 2026? Above 15M | Everything Else | 35% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? Why Did I Get Married Again? | Culture | 60% ▲ 24 7d: ▼ 15 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elizara Yaneva wins Elizara Yaneva | Tennis | in 4 hours | 57% — |
| Team WE wins Team WE | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 42% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Adrian Andreev wins Adrian Andreev | Tennis | in 4 hours | 57% — |
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 50% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 18, 2026? Above $95.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 40% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-09-18? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 38% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29569.99 at the end of Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,570 or above | Markets | later today | 61% — |
| Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes | Politics | tomorrow | 18% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 96 | Culture | in 3 days | 33% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be Top US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? Why Did I Get Married Again? | Culture | in 4 days | 60% ▲ 24 7d: ▼ 15 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz · settles today | Everything Else | 50% — |
| Elizara Yaneva wins Elizara Yaneva · settles today | Tennis | 57% — |
| Team WE wins Team WE · settles today | Everything Else | 42% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 18, 2026? Above $95.99 · settles today | Commodities | 40% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will the number of statewide races won by Democratic Party nominees in Texas be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election? At least 2 · settles in 138 days | Politics | 40% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29569.99 at the end of Sep 18, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,570 or above · settles today | Markets | 61% — |
| Will Alec Burleson lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? Alec Burleson · settles in 27 days | Politics | 62% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 83 days | Economy | 66% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 96 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 33% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 104 days | Culture | 70% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes · settles in 104 days | Economy | 73% — 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 781 days | Politics | 21% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 163 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Dusan Obradovic wins Dusan Obradovic · settles today | Tennis | 84% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 105 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 781 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 781 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 195 days | NFL | 12% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 286 days | NBA | 11% — |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 66 days | Culture | 11% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Australia wins Australia · settles today | Everything Else | 97.0% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 6 million views? At least 6 million · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Carles Cordoba wins Carles Cordoba · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Sep 18, 2026? Minneapolis · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| GenOne wins GenOne · settles today | Everything Else | 94.0% — |
| Full Game: over 27.5 points scored? Over 27.5 points scored · settles in 4 days | NFL | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7609.9999 on Sep 18, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,610 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7594.9999 on Sep 18, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,595 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.0% — |