Edition of September 19, 2026 · built from 3,522 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put this at 34% this morning. · ▼ 6 points overnight · settles in 104 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Surging Yes | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 49 7d: ▼ 55 |
| Fuerza Regia wins Fuerza Regia | Everything Else | 80% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Central Bank at his Oct 2026 press conference? Central Bank | Economy | 89% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Trump meet Sundar Pichai in September? Sundar Pichai | Everything Else | 78% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° in New York on Sep 19, 2026? 71° to 72° | News | 60% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 25 |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status before Jan 1, 2029? Before 2029 | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 27 7d: ▼ 27 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <78° in Los Angeles on Sep 19, 2026? 77° or below | News | 44% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will Angie Nixon win Miami-Dade County? Miami-Dade | Everything Else | 33% ▲ 24 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Sep 19, 2026? Minneapolis | News | 48% ▼ 22 |
| Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Sep 24, 2026 be above 7.00%? Above 7.00% | Everything Else | 72% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-09-19? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 50% — |
| Zuzanna Pawlikowska wins Zuzanna Pawlikowska | Tennis | in 3 hours | 62% — |
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 54% — |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-19? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 60% — |
| England wins England | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes | Politics | later today | 40% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Houston wins Houston | MLB | later today | 52% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $95.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 53% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 98.50 USD/Bbl on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $98.50 | Commodities | in 2 days | 66% — |
| Will The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare | Culture | in 3 days | 37% — |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story be Top Global Netflix Show on Sep 21, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story | Culture | in 3 days | 83% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 6 days | 24% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Invictus Gaming wins Invictus Gaming · settles today | Everything Else | 54% — |
| Zuzanna Pawlikowska wins Zuzanna Pawlikowska · settles today | Tennis | 62% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 82 days | Economy | 68% — 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes · settles in 11 days | Politics | 76% — |
| Will Lana Del Rey be featured on Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album? Lana Del Rey · settles in 103 days | Culture | 22% — |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes · settles in 103 days | Economy | 78% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 780 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 162 days | Culture | 82% — |
| Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election before Nov 3, 2026? Yes · settles in 45 days | Politics | 18% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 780 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 104 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 103 days | Culture | 85% ▲ 10 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? Before 2027 · settles in 834 days | Economy | 86% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 3 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? At least 3 weeks · settles in 99 days | Culture | 86% — 7d: ▲ 14 |
| England wins England · settles today | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 194 days | NFL | 12% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Josh Shapiro receive at least 94% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania? At least 94% · settles in 410 days | Politics | 12% — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 285 days | NBA | 11% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $99.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 11% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Priscilla Hon wins Priscilla Hon · | Tennis | 90% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Marko Topo wins Marko Topo · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Alexander Zverev wins Alexander Zverev · settles today | Everything Else | 96.5% — |
| Max Hans Rehberg wins Max Hans Rehberg · settles today | Tennis | 96.0% — |
| Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story be Top US Netflix Show on Sep 21, 2026? Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story · settles in 3 days | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Arthur Fery wins Arthur Fery · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Resident Evil Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $89.49 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Sep 21, 2026? 5.22% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 21, 2026? Above $89.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Sep 21, 2026? 4.81% or above · settles in 2 days | Economy | 98.5% — |