Edition of October 9, 2026 · built from 3,189 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put AI / Artificial Intelligence at 60% this morning. · ▲ 30 points overnight · settles in 11 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York originally scheduled for October 9, 2026? Trump Account | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 30 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will it rain in Atlanta on Oct 9, 2026? Atlanta | News | 78% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <71° in Chicago on Oct 9, 2026? 70° or below | News | 14% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will Fjord be on the list of nominees for Best Picture at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? Fjord | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Kendre Miller: 1+ touchdowns Kendre Miller: 1+ | NFL | 16% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Bangladesh wins Bangladesh | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will Below: Limited Series be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 12, 2026? Below: Limited Series | Culture | 82% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 22 |
| What will Ally Financial Inc. say during their next earnings call? Surging AI / Artificial Intelligence | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 5 |
| What will Intuitive Surgical, Inc. say during their next earnings call? International | Everything Else | 93% ▲ 28 |
| Will the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 8, 2026 be exactly 3.88%? Exactly 3.88% | Everything Else | 2% ▼ 22 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia A wins Australia A | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 67% ▲ 30 |
| India A wins India A | Everything Else | in 2 hours | 32% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Moerani Bouzige wins Moerani Bouzige | Tennis | in 3 hours | 28% — |
| Andrea Lola Popovic wins Andrea Lola Popovic | Tennis | in 4 hours | 18% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,187.83 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 34% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 18% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 9, 2026? Above $90.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 34% — |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 16% — |
| The Social Reckoning Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 57 | Culture | in 3 days | 70% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Doing Life be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 12, 2026? Doing Life | Culture | in 4 days | 42% ▲ 9 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,187.83 · settles today | Commodities | 34% — |
| Camila Markus wins Camila Markus · | Tennis | 34% — |
| Australia A wins Australia A · settles today | Everything Else | 67% ▲ 30 |
| India A wins India A · settles today | Everything Else | 32% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 1 |
| The Social Reckoning Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 57 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 70% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Jenson Brooksby wins Jenson Brooksby · | Tennis | 26% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 9, 2026? Above $91.49 · settles today | Commodities | 26% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 62 days | Economy | 76% — 7d: ▲ 8 |
| What will any participating candidate say during Atlanta Press Club debate for Georgia U.S. Senate originally scheduled for October 13, 2026? Tariff · settles in 18 days | Politics | 78% — |
| Will La Bola Negra win Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? La Bola Negra · settles in 87 days | Culture | 18% — 7d: ▼ 17 |
| Will Yariv Levin be Minister of Justice as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yariv Levin · settles in 383 days | Politics | 18% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 84 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 761 days | Everything Else | 15% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 86% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 265 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 174 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 234 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia wins Saudi Arabia · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas wins Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas · settles today | Tennis | 95.0% — |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 10 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| The Social Reckoning Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 98.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30789.99 at the end of Oct 9, 2026 at 10am EDT? 30,790 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |
| Joshua Edwards wins Joshua Edwards · settles tomorrow | Boxing | 95.0% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will James Talarico be seen in public before Oct 15, 2026? Before Oct 15, 2026 · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 9, 2026? Above $86.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 9, 2026? Above $85.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30729.99 at the end of Oct 9, 2026 at 10am EDT? 30,730 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.0% — |