Edition of October 10, 2026 · built from 3,070 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 20K at 28% this morning. · ▼ 36 points overnight · settles in 22 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Washington DC on Oct 10, 2026? Washington DC | News | 50% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <69° in Atlanta on Oct 10, 2026? 68° or below | News | 68% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Who will win the Colorado House? Democratic party | Everything Else | 98% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3700? Above 4.3700 | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 | Culture | 40% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| The Social Reckoning Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 57 | Culture | 8% ▼ 22 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will Animals be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 12, 2026? Animals | Culture | 73% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 | Politics | 40% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Watch Dis by Yung Miami have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 20K | Culture | 28% ▼ 36 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >82° in Chicago on Oct 10, 2026? 83° or above | News | 49% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 24 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qinwen Zheng wins Qinwen Zheng | Tennis | in 5 hours | 58% — |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-10? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 42% — |
| G2 Esports wins G2 Esports | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 54% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Chicago WS wins Chicago WS | MLB | later today | 44% — |
| Will it rain in Washington DC on Oct 10, 2026? Washington DC | News | tomorrow | 50% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 | Culture | in 2 days | 40% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4189 USD/t.oz on October 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4189 | Commodities | in 2 days | 56% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Animals be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 12, 2026? Animals | Culture | in 3 days | 73% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $93.49 | Commodities | in 3 days | 26% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO? Yes | Everything Else | in 4 days | 14% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins Tomas Martin Etcheverry · | Tennis | 52% — |
| G2 Esports wins G2 Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 54% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4189 USD/t.oz on October 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4189 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 56% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 20 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 40% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will Josh Turek outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa? Yes · settles in 52 days | Politics | 37% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Camila Markus wins Camila Markus · | Tennis | 30% — |
| Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? La Bola Negra · settles in 87 days | Culture | 29% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026? Above $93.49 · settles in 3 days | Commodities | 26% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 61 days | Economy | 74% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Bezalel Smotrich · settles in 382 days | Politics | 19% — |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 264 days | Culture | 17% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 83 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 760 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 83 days | Economy | 13% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 11 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 264 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 10, 2026? 37.8% · settles today | Everything Else | 88% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 173 days | Culture | 12% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 233 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? Yes · settles in 3 days | Politics | 96.0% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% — |
| Yuliya Perapekhina wins Yuliya Perapekhina · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 15 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 95.0% — |
| George Lazarov wins George Lazarov · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| The Social Reckoning Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 52 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Singapore wins Singapore · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will it rain in Lexington on Oct 10, 2026? Lexington · settles tomorrow | News | 95.5% — |