Today’s Number
Will the monthly average spot price of DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 be above $59.25 in December 2026?
Market-consensus odds put Above $59.25 at 80% this morning. · ▲ 12 points overnight · settles in 79 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of October 14, 2026
Edition of October 14, 2026 · built from 3,808 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
80%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Seattle on Oct 14, 2026? Seattle | News | 60% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° in Chicago on Oct 14, 2026? 67° to 68° | News | 90% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 48-49° in Denver on Oct 14, 2026? 48° to 49° | News | 82% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi / Netanyahu" before Oct 19, 2026? Bibi / Netanyahu | Everything Else | 54% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Bullhead City, Arizona originally scheduled for October 14, 2026? Hormuz | Everything Else | 28% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will Diesel Price on October 19, 2026 be above $6.40? Above $6.40 | Everything Else | 34% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? At least 50% | Politics | 50% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Will Justin Bieber have above 15.5M daily views at any point during October 12, 2026 - October 18, 2026? Above 15.5M | Everything Else | 21% ▼ 26 7d: ▼ 26 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 24.7% | Everything Else | 49% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 18 |
| DeepSeek Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 10.9% Above 10.9% | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 33 7d: ▲ 33 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,143.30 | Commodities | within the hour | 48% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 58% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 7 |
| West Indies wins West Indies | Everything Else | in 8 hours | 28% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the Index.US30/USD be at least $51,875 at October 14, 2026 at 4pm ET? At least $51,875 | Markets | in 11 hours | 50% — |
| Western Kentucky wins by over 1.5 points Western Kentucky wins by over 1.5 points | College | later today | 50% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 2 days | 20% — |
| Ohio St. wins by over 3.5 points Ohio St. wins by over 3.5 points | College | in 3 days | 50% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 98 | Culture | in 5 days | 66% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 5 days | 58% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Oct 19, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 5 days | 55% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? At least 50% · settles in 62 days | Politics | 50% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,143.30 · settles today | Commodities | 48% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points? James Talarico, 2+ pts · settles in 385 days | Politics | 43% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30619.99 at the end of Oct 14, 2026 at 10am EDT? 30,620 or above · settles today | Markets | 43% — |
| KT Rolster wins KT Rolster · settles today | Everything Else | 58% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Yiming Dang wins Yiming Dang · settles today | Tennis | 40% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Hanyu Guo wins Hanyu Guo · | Tennis | 38% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 19 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 98 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 66% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes · settles in 106 days | Economy | 66% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| West Indies wins West Indies · settles today | Everything Else | 28% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 75% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 57 days | Economy | 76% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 18 days | MLB | 22% — 7d: ▼ 16 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 79 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 756 days | Everything Else | 14% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 86% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 14% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 260 days | Culture | 11% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 229 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong wins Hong Kong · settles today | Everything Else | 94.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Veronika Sekerkova wins Veronika Sekerkova · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Sebastian Fundora wins Sebastian Fundora · settles in 4 days | Boxing | 93.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.72 USD/Lbs on October 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.72 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2200? Above 4.2200 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 10 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4047 USD/t.oz on October 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4047 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% — |
| Will it rain in St. Louis on Oct 14, 2026? St. Louis · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.91% on Oct 14, 2026? 4.92% or above · settles today | Economy | 93.5% — |