Edition of October 15, 2026 · built from 2,973 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put At least 42% at 51% this morning. · ▼ 46 points overnight · settles in 80 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI market share this week? Surging Above 18.8% | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 56 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >66° in Chicago on Oct 15, 2026? 67° or above | News | 60% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 21.7% | Everything Else | 50% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 48 |
| Will the maximum temperature be >54° in Denver on Oct 15, 2026? 55° or above | News | 42% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Will Troy Jackson receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election? Surging At least 42% | Politics | 51% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 | Culture | 48% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will "Housewife" rank No. 1–2 on Billboard Hot 100? Rank 1 to 2 | Culture | 46% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Khalin H Joshi finishes top 20 Khalin H Joshi | Everything Else | 48% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Buick LPGA Shanghai: Hye-Jin Choi wins Hye-Jin Choi | Everything Else | 36% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Google market share this week? Above 17.4% | Everything Else | 57% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 30 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leylah Fernandez wins Leylah Fernandez | Tennis | within the hour | 68% — |
| OKSavingsBank BRION wins OKSavingsBank BRION | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 56% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Oman wins Oman | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 58% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 15, 2026? Above $94.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 28% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.64 USD/Lbs on October 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.64 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 54% — |
| Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs? Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs | MLB | later today | 32% — |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 31% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 | Culture | in 4 days | 48% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 22 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 98 | Culture | in 4 days | 66% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Oct 19, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 4 days | 17% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 55 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 35 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 48% ▼ 29 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election? At least 50% · settles in 61 days | Politics | 52% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 21 |
| Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points? James Talarico, 2+ pts · settles in 384 days | Politics | 46% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.64 USD/Lbs on October 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.64 · settles today | Commodities | 54% — |
| Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Jan 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027 · settles in 816 days | Everything Else | 38% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 98 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 66% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Tyler Zink wins Tyler Zink · | Tennis | 29% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 15, 2026? Above $94.99 · settles today | Commodities | 28% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 17 days | MLB | 23% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 56 days | Economy | 78% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 56 days | Economy | 20% ▲ 1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 83% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Valentin Gonzalez-Galino wins Valentin Gonzalez-Galino · | Tennis | 84% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 78 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 755 days | Everything Else | 15% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra leads at the end of Round 1 Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra · settles in 17 days | Everything Else | 12% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 259 days | Culture | 11% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 228 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? Yes · settles today | Politics | 98.8% — |
| Street Fighter Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 15 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.0% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Sebastian Fundora wins Sebastian Fundora · settles in 3 days | Boxing | 94.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Karan Singh wins Karan Singh · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will it rain in St. Louis on Oct 15, 2026? St. Louis · settles tomorrow | News | 96.0% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 28.3% Above 28.3% · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 97.0% — |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 17.6% Above 17.6% · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 96.5% — |
| Will it rain in Chicago on Oct 15, 2026? Chicago · settles tomorrow | News | 95.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 15, 2026? Above $90.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |