Edition of October 25, 2026 · built from 3,282 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Almeria advances at 66% this morning. · ▲ 30 points overnight · settles in 3 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Fast food credit card spend array index for October 2026 be above 74? Above 74 | Everything Else | 98% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <56° in Denver on Oct 25, 2026? 55° or below | News | 14% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will the margin of victory for Susan Collins in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine be between 0% and 2%? Susan Collins, 0-2% | Politics | 49% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 35 |
| Elche To Advance Elche advances | Everything Else | 93% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will Podemos win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Spanish general election? Podemos | Politics | 49% ▼ 31 7d: ▼ 29 |
| Will Klarna Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 20 ? Above 20 | Everything Else | 97% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will it rain in Denver on Oct 25, 2026? Denver | News | 38% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 23 |
| Will Minecraft Marathon - IShowSpeed & Kai Cenat win the Best Marathon Stream at the 2026 Streamer Awards? Minecraft Marathon - IShowSpeed & Kai Cenat | Everything Else | 37% ▼ 24 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Malaga To Advance Malaga advances | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 27 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Reg Time: Elche wins Surging Reg Time: Elche | Everything Else | 88% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 7 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monika Gospodinova wins Monika Gospodinova | Tennis | in 4 hours | 36% — |
| Sandra Samir wins Sandra Samir | Tennis | in 4 hours | 46% — |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25? Yes | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 46% — |
| England wins England | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 27% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25? Yes | Everything Else | in 11 hours | 26% — |
| G2 Esports wins G2 Esports | Everything Else | in 12 hours | 52% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? Yes | Politics | later today | 46% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? Yes | Politics | later today | 30% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Dow Jones price: At least 52,050 October 26, 2026 at 4pm ET At least $52,050 | Markets | tomorrow | 50% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4004 USD/t.oz on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4004 | Commodities | tomorrow | 46% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.6 and 38.8 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.6 to 38.8 | Politics | in 5 days | 28% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports wins G2 Esports · settles today | Everything Else | 52% — |
| Will the gold close price be above 4004 USD/t.oz on October 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4004 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 46% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Monika Gospodinova wins Monika Gospodinova · settles today | Tennis | 36% — |
| Will Nathan Fielder win Best Director at the Oscars? Nathan Fielder · settles in 432 days | Culture | 34% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 17 |
| The Mongoose Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 45 · settles in 8 days | Culture | 34% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points? Ken Paxton, 2+ pts · settles in 374 days | Politics | 28% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| England wins England · settles today | Everything Else | 27% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes · settles in 46 days | Economy | 76% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 249 days | NBA | 24% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 158 days | Culture | 77% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Maxim Zhukov wins Maxim Zhukov · | Tennis | 22% — |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 20% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 80% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 46 days | Economy | 20% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 68 days | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the margin of victory for Roy Cooper in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be between 12% and 14%? Roy Cooper, 12-14% · settles in 374 days | Politics | 19% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 745 days | Everything Else | 17% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 26, 2026? Above $99.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 86% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 218 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 4 days | Economy | 95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 98.1% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Spirit wins Spirit · settles today | Everything Else | 97.5% — |
| Kazuki Nakajima wins Kazuki Nakajima · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Gabriele Maria Piano wins Gabriele Maria Piano · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 73 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will it rain in Seattle on Oct 25, 2026? Seattle · settles tomorrow | News | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in Miami on Oct 25, 2026? Miami · settles tomorrow | News | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 26, 2026? Above $98.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 93.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Oct 26, 2026? 4.89% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 97.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |