Edition of October 29, 2026 · built from 2,628 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put 2+ holes-in-one at 33% this morning. · ▲ 12 points overnight · settles in 17 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 41% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 39 |
| What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina originally scheduled for October 29, 2026? Fraud (3+ times) | Everything Else | 70% ▲ 34 |
| Will DoorDash announce acquisition of Instacart (Maplebear) before Nov 2, 2026? Surging Before Nov 2, 2026 | Everything Else | 95% ▲ 36 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million | Culture | 93% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Dubuque, Iowa originally scheduled for November 1, 2026? Fraud (3+ times) | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 30 |
| Roma wins by more than 2.5 goals? Roma wins by more than 2.5 goals | Champions League | 48% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Lindenwood wins Lindenwood | College | 46% ▲ 32 |
| Will HOUSEWIFE be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 7, 2026 HOUSEWIFE | Culture | 48% ▼ 38 |
| What will Donald Trump say during midterm rally in Daytona Beach, Florida originally scheduled for October 30, 2026? Fraud (3+ times) | Everything Else | 57% ▲ 25 |
| Will Skims IPO before Jan 1, 2028? Skims | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 20 7d: ▼ 20 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FUT Esports wins FUT Esports | Everything Else | in 3 hours | 46% — |
| Sri Lanka wins Sri Lanka | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 18% ▼ 15 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 100.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 29, 2026? Above $100.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 51% — |
| Full Game: Over 146.5 points scored Over 146.5 points | WNBA | in 10 hours | 54% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4027 USD/t.oz on October 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4027 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 48% — |
| Will Corey Conners shoot under 68.5 in Round 1? R1: Corey Conners under 68.5 strokes | Golf | later today | 58% — |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 20% — |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 82% ▲ 70 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Vitality Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026? Yes | Sports | in 4 days | 36% — |
| Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026? Nobody Wants This: Season 3 | Culture | in 5 days | 64% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1 be Top US Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026? The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1 | Culture | in 5 days | 68% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 32% ▼ 8 7d: ▼ 8 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Kaitlin Quevedo wins Kaitlin Quevedo · | Tennis | 50% ▲ 4 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4027 USD/t.oz on October 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4027 · settles today | Commodities | 48% — |
| Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No one · settles in 363 days | Politics | 53% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes · | Politics | 46% — 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will Oscar Isaac win a Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a Limited Series at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? Oscar Isaac · settles in 74 days | Culture | 45% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Xinran Sun wins Xinran Sun · | Tennis | 44% — |
| Will Venezuela call its next presidential election before Apr 1, 2027? Before Apr 1, 2027 · settles in 161 days | Politics | 36% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 101.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 29, 2026? Above $101.99 · settles today | Commodities | 32% — |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 245 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Sri Lanka wins Sri Lanka · settles today | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 15 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 64 days | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 741 days | Everything Else | 17% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 245 days | Culture | 13% — |
| Will Damascus Road be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 7, 2026 Damascus Road · settles in 13 days | Culture | 13% — |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 214 days | Champions League | 12% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Medipolis SC Jena wins Medipolis SC Jena · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 12% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 741 days | Politics | 11% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 98.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? Yes · settles in 6 days | Politics | 96.0% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? Yes · settles in 6 days | Politics | 96.7% — |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 93.0% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37 |
| Nastasja Schunk wins Nastasja Schunk · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Fukuda / Okabe wins Fukuda / Okabe · settles today | Tennis | 97.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7669.9999 on Oct 29, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,670 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.5% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107 USD/Bbl on October 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $107 · settles today | Commodities | 93.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 97.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 29, 2026? Above $97.99 · settles today | Commodities | 94.0% — |