Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Everything Else · tracked since September 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 6% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 6% |
| 2026-10-04 | 8% |
| 2026-10-03 | 8% |
| 2026-10-02 | 8% |
| 2026-10-01 | 8% |
| 2026-09-14 | 14% |
| 2026-09-13 | 16% |
| 2026-09-12 | 14% |
| 2026-09-04 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on September 4, 2026 to 6% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 16%. The final reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31” for 9 days, since September 4, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 9% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.