Edition of July 17, 2026 · built from 7,930 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Fear at 82% this morning. · ▲ 43 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Top Coding AI this week? Kimi | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 94 7d: ▲ 94 |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? Hippo | Everything Else | 73% ▲ 64 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Will Trump endorse at least 10 people on Truth Social this week? At least 10 | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 60 |
| Will there be at least 7 presidential actions in the week of Jul 12, 2026? Surging At least 7 | Everything Else | 38% ▼ 45 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Melania Trump attend 2026 FIFA World Cup Final in 2026? Surging Melania Trump | World Cup | 94% ▲ 42 7d: ▲ 56 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 20, 2026? Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 | Culture | 77% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for July 2026 be above 330ㅤ? Surging Above 330ㅤ | Everything Else | 92% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Fear & Greed Index on Jul 17, 2026? Surging Fear | Everything Else | 82% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 45 |
| The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 40? Jordan Spieth | Golf | 14% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 8 |
| #2 US Netflix Movie on Jul 20, 2026? Nothing to Lose | Culture | 63% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 14 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 109 days | Politics | 54% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 23 |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 140K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 56% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 3 days | World Cup | 59% — 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 3 days | World Cup | 41% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 23 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 66% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $85.99 · settles today | Commodities | 32% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes · settles in 167 days | Economy | 32% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes · settles in 167 days | Culture | 32% — |
| Will Alexander Bublik win the Bublik vs Halys: Round Of 16 match? Alexander Bublik · settles today | Tennis | 70% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 17 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 168 days | Everything Else | 28% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 167 days | Everything Else | 24% — 7d: ▲ 8 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 844 days | Everything Else | 20% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| What will be Jalen Duren's next team? Detroit · settles in 96 days | Everything Else | 80% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 844 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026? Troy Jackson · settles in 22 days | Politics | 84% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 36 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 77.00 and 77.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 17, 2026? $77.00 to $77.99 · settles today | Commodities | 15% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles tomorrow | Golf | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 167 days | Economy | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 844 days | Politics | 12% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? At least 1 · settles in 3 days | World Cup | 97.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 6 |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 93 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Top Coding AI this week? Kimi · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▲ 94 7d: ▲ 94 |
| Will Rikke De Koning win the De Koning vs Greiner: W15 Kursumlijska Banja Quarterfinal match? Rikke De Koning · settles today | Tennis | 93.0% — |
| Best AI this week Claude · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 97.5% ▼ 1 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $81.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.0% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 67 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 79.99 USD/Bbl on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $79.99 · settles today | Commodities | 95.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 75 |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 13000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 13K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 17, 2026? 4.95% or above · settles today | Economy | 96.0% — |
| Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 17, 2026? 4.1% or above · settles today | Economy | 95.5% — |