Edition of July 19, 2026 · built from 7,728 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Hillary Clinton at 84% this morning. · ▲ 46 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Boot? Surging Jude Bellingham | World Cup | 94% ▲ 74 7d: ▲ 80 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 20, 2026? Surging Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 | Culture | 28% ▼ 62 7d: ▲ 2 |
| #2 US Netflix Show on Jul 20, 2026? Surging Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 | Culture | 79% ▲ 68 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe win the Silver Boot? Surging Kylian Mbappe | World Cup | 8% ▼ 51 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will the Golden Boot winner wear Nike branded cleats during the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup? Surging Nike branded cleats | World Cup | 92% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 34 |
| What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call? AI / Artificial Intelligence | Everything Else | 11% ▼ 58 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Will Kim Kardashian attend 2026 FIFA World Cup Final in 2026? Surging Kim Kardashian | World Cup | 16% ▼ 43 7d: ▲ 5 |
| The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10? Surging Cameron Young | Golf | 22% ▼ 42 7d: ▲ 40 |
| #2 US Netflix Movie on Jul 20, 2026? Nothing to Lose | Culture | 7% ▼ 44 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Any Halftime Performer perform Bring Your Love at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium? Surging Bring Your Love | World Cup | 6% ▼ 51 7d: ▼ 33 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles today | World Cup | 41% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles today | World Cup | 59% — 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship? Sam Burns · settled | Golf | 40% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes · settles in 165 days | Culture | 60% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 32 |
| Will OpTic Texas win Call of Duty League Championship? OpTic Texas · settles today | Everything Else | 60% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? 32,000 or above · settles in 166 days | Markets | 38% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham Nordone · settles in 23 days | Politics | 64% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 58 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 10 days | Economy | 35% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes · settles in 165 days | Economy | 34% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 107 days | Politics | 66% ▲ 10 7d: ▲ 22 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 165 days | Everything Else | 30% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Spain vs Argentina Winner? Reg Time: Argentina · settles today | World Cup | 28% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 20, 2026? Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 28% ▼ 62 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 166 days | Everything Else | 24% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 842 days | Everything Else | 20% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 842 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 165 days | Economy | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 842 days | Politics | 12% — |
| The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 90% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 55 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes · settles today | World Cup | 97.1% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? At least 1 · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 120K · settles today | Culture | 96.5% — 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will average gas prices be above $3.990? Above 3.990 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will the copper close price be above 5.80 USD/Lbs on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $5.80 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 98.0% — |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? Above 10 · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 97.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 79.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 20, 2026? Above $79.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 97.0% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 29 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.50% on Jul 20, 2026? 4.51% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 94.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.46% on Jul 24, 2026? 4.47% or above · settles in 5 days | Economy | 94.5% — |