Edition of July 21, 2026 · built from 7,145 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 55.0% at 44% this morning. · ▼ 38 points overnight · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 9 presidential actions in the week of Jul 19, 2026? At least 9 | Everything Else | 86% ▲ 80 7d: ▲ 80 |
| Will Nancy Mace announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026? Surging Nancy Mace | Politics | 2% ▼ 63 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Michael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026? At least $2.5 billion | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 57 7d: ▼ 44 |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? Surging Above 15 | Everything Else | 36% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 50 |
| Will Trump say "Karoline / Leavitt" before Jul 27, 2026? Karoline / Leavitt | Everything Else | 64% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? Surging Above 15 | Everything Else | 38% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will Oh yeah? by Steve Lacey have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 17, 2026 - July 23, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 40K | Culture | 33% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026? Above 4.25% | Everything Else | 48% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Domino's Pizza Inc report Above 7350 total us stores in 2026? Above 7350 | Everything Else | 84% ▲ 37 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for July 2026 be above 55.0%? Surging Above 55.0% | Everything Else | 44% ▼ 37 7d: ▼ 44 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles in 10 days | Culture | 50% — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 57 days | Economy | 42% — |
| Will Rio Noguchi win the Noguchi vs Shick: Round Of 32 match? Rio Noguchi · settles today | Tennis | 59% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Andre Ilagan win the Watanuki vs Ilagan: Round Of 32 match? Andre Ilagan · settles today | Tennis | 35% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 4 |
| Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 105 days | Politics | 65% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 12 |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? 0 · settles in 8 days | Economy | 34% — 7d: ▼ 22 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 103 days | MLB | 32% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 80.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 21, 2026? Above $80.99 · settles today | Commodities | 72% ▼ 16 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 163 days | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026 · settles in 164 days | Everything Else | 24% — 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026? Morgan Wallen · settles in 11 days | Culture | 76% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 66 |
| Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham Nordone · settles in 21 days | Politics | 80% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 73 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 840 days | Everything Else | 20% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 840 days | Politics | 20% — |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 138 days | Sports | 84% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 163 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 60 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 84% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 163 days | Economy | 14% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 840 days | Politics | 12% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Moerani Bouzige win the Bouzige vs Sik: M15 Brisbane Round of 32 match? Moerani Bouzige · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? Yes · settles in 7 days | Politics | 99.4% — 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France? Tadej Pogacar · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▼ 1 |
| Will Panna Udvardy win the Pridankina vs Udvardy: Round Of 32 match? Panna Udvardy · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 55 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 93.5% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 48 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 78.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 21, 2026? Above $78.99 · settles today | Commodities | 94.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026? Above 40 · settles today | Everything Else | 94.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7379.9999 on Jul 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,380 or above · settles today | Markets | 94.0% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 21, 2026? Above $77.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7399.9999 on Jul 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,400 or above · settles today | Markets | 95.0% — |